National Weather Service Raw Text Product

944 
WTPZ41 KNHC 251457
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 25 1997
 
NORA IS ABOUT ON TRACK.  WHILE THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED ON
RADAR OR SATELLITE PICTURES...THE ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH APPEARS
TO HAVE CONTINUED.  THE SPEED IS NOW NEAR 21 KT.  THE CENTER IS
APPARENTLY EMERGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WILL
MAKE ITS FINAL LANDFALL WEST OF PUERTO PENASCO IN A FEW HOURS.  

NORA WAS LIKELY WEAKENED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOW LESS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS NO INDICATION
OF AN EYE IN IR IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS OVER LAND FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE 30C SSTS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 KT.  A
RAPID DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
FINAL LANDFALL LATER TODAY...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY NORA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CENTER...PROBABLY TO THE EAST OF
YUMA.
 
A STORM SURGE OF SEVERAL FEET AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.  SEE INFORMATION FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
 
LIITLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE
GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW NORA MOVING TOWARD THE NNE TO
NE...UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISSIPATES...PROBABLY IN
24 TO 36 HOURS.  A QUICK...PRELIMINARY...LOOK AT FORECAST
VERIFICATION FOR NORA SHOWS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO HAVE BEEN BEST
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND THE UKMET BEST AT LONG RANGE.  ON AVERAGE...
THE AVN HAS HAD THE LARGEST ERRORS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 30.5N 114.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 33.6N 114.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     26/1200Z 37.3N 112.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED