National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
TTAA00 KNHC 250839
HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 25 1997

THERE ARE NO AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR NORA BUT SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF NORA RECENTLY MOVED OVER PUNTA EUGENIA
AND IT IS NOW OVER WATER IN THE VICINITY OF BAHIA SEBASTIAN.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS AND WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED SOON AS NORA INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  A RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE NORA MOVES OVER THE
MAINLAND.  NORA COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT CROSSES THE
U.S. BORDER.  HOWEVER...OVER INLAND AREAS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FELT ONLY WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS. NORA EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT NORA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 
 
IMPORTANT: ALTHOUGH STRONG INLAND WINDS ARE OF SOME CONCERN...THE
MAIN THREAT OVER THE U.S. WITH NORA SHOULD BE RAINFALL.  INTERESTS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSSING ON THE PRECISE
TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER SINCE THIS IS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...
PARTICULARLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND.  RAINS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
WELL OUT AHEAD OF NORA...OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND CALIFORNIA.  SEE INFORMATION FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 28.4N 114.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 31.2N 114.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 35.0N 113.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     26/1800Z 38.5N 110.0W    DISSIPATED