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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-24 02:33 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 240233 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 1997 NORA HAS PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT STILL LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON VISIBLE PICTURES. ON THE IR IMAGES WE HAVE SEEN SOME NEW CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE HURRICANES ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. THEREFORE SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...NORA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...330/09. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...TURNING NORA NORTHWARD WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODELS. THE FORECAST SHOWS NORA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME. THIS IS TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO LOCAL FORECASTERS SINCE NORAS REMNANTS COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD BEAR IN MIND THE FACT THAT A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT BUT A LARGE CIRCULATION. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT ON THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AFTER THE EXPECTED PASSAGE ACROSS BAJA. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...TO NEAR 29.5N...TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE 36- HOUR FORECAST POINT IN THAT VICINITY. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 22.0N 114.3W 80 KTS 12HR VT 24/1200Z 23.4N 114.9W 75 KTS 24HR VT 25/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W 70 KTS 36HR VT 25/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W 65 tKTS 48HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 114.5W 50 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0000Z 40.0N 110.0W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING