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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-22 21:00 UTC
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766 WTPZ41 KNHC 222048 TCDEP1 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 22 1997 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE NORA TO BE WARMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KNOTS...AND SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY. THE RATE OF WEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES INVOLVED WITH LAND AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7...IN RESPONSE TO A CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH IS NOW BECOMING VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE SATELLITE WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SPACE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING CENTER. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE TRACKS. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. THE MID AND DEEP LAYER BAMS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT. THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT. THIS CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.0N 112.0W 105 KTS 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.8N 112.7W 100 KTS 24HR VT 23/1800Z 21.1N 113.1W 100 KTS 36HR VT 24/0600Z 22.8N 113.3W 95 KTS 48HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 113.4W 90 KTS 72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W 75 KTS