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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-21 20:41 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 212041 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 1997 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT NORA HAS RETAINED ITS LARGE EYE... ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE RAGGED LOOKING THAN BEFORE. ALSO... THE SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...WHICH USUALLY SUGGESTS WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE OR THE BEGINNING OF A TRUE WEAKENING TREND. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NORA IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE TRACK THAT HURRICANE LINDA MOVED OVER ABOUT 10 DAYS EARLIER. AT THAT TIME ...LINDA WAS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AND LIKELY UPWELLED SOME COOLER WATER THAT NORA IS NOW CROSSING. SHIFOR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING ...SHIPS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING...AND THE GFDL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE UPWELLED WATER...THE ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR NORA TO MAKE A COMEBACK. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED...RATHER THAN GET TOO FANCY WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES INVOLVED WITH LAND. THE FORWARD MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS CUT OFF ANOTHER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WOULD PULL NORA TOWARD THE NORTH. MOST GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND STILL TURNS NORA TOWARD THE BAJA. THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL REMAINS THE OUTLIER IN THAT IT TURNS NORA TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 17.4N 109.4W 110 KTS 12HR VT 22/0600Z 18.2N 110.5W 110 KTS 24HR VT 22/1800Z 19.2N 111.3W 110 KTS 36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.6N 111.7W 110 KTS 48HpR VT 23/1800Z 22.2N 111.8W 110 KTS 72HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 112.0W 90 KTS