National Weather Service Raw Text Product

450 
WTPZ41 KNHC 211435
TCDEP1
HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 1997
 
THE LARGE EYE OF NORA HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12
HOURS AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE BECOME
COLDER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS...WHICH IS A
BLEND BETWEEN VARIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE TRACK MOVES THE
HURRICANE OVER 29 TO 30C WATER WHICH...IN THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR...
SHOULD ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE WEAKENING LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DUE TO THE EXPECTED INVOLVEMENT WITH LAND.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/09.  OUR TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP-LAYER-MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.  ALTHOUGH THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH MOVES
OUT SLOWLY...BOTH THE AVIATION AND NOGAPS MODELS CUT OFF ANOTHER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN 72 HOURS.  IF THIS SECOND CUT OFF
LOW VERIFIES...NORA SHOULD INDEED TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
TIME...MAKING IT A LANDFALL THREAT FOR BAJA.  OUR CURRENT TRACK IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFDL AND ALL
OF THE BAM MODELS.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE UKMET MODEL CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH SLOWER...AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL NHC91 HAS RECENTLY
BECOME THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 17.0N 108.4W   110 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 17.8N 109.4W   115 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 19.1N 110.3W   120 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 20.8N 110.8W   120 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.6N 110.7W   110 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N 110.0W    85 KTS