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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-21 09:00 UTC
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711 WTPZ41 KNHC 210820 TCDEP1 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 1997 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/06. THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO A SLOW MOVING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT. THE NOGAPS IS FURTHEST EAST WHILE THE UKMET IS FURTHER WEST AND MUCH SLOWER. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE CLUSTERD NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS CLUSTER IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFLD AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN A VERY LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE NEAR 7.0 WHILE TAFB AND SAB INTENSITIES ARE A CONSERVATIVE 5.0. THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AND IT COULD GO HIGHER WITH THIS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN....VERY WARM SSTS...AND MINIMAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. NORA IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO SOCORRO ISLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 16.4N 107.1W 90 KTS 12HR VT 21/1800Z 17.1N 107.8W 100 KTS 24HR VT 22/0600Z 18.1N 108.9W 100 KTS 36HR VT 22/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W 100 KTS 48HR VT 23/0600Z 21.2N 110.0W 100 KTS 72HR VT 24/0600Z 24.5N 110.0W 80 KTS