National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-19 14:49 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KNHC Products for 19 Sep 1997 View All TCD Products for 19 Sep 1997 View As Image Download As Text
000 TTAA00 KNHC 191449 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 1997 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND THE CENTER...WHILE EASY TO LOCATE...DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS WELL-FORMED THIS MORNING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DROPPED OFF A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KT. AS NOTED IS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WEAKENING IS RELATED TO THE PROLONGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF NORA...KEEPING THE HURRICANE OVER RELATIVELY COOL UPWELLED WATERS. THE HURRICANE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE UPPER LOW TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A DRY ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGE ARE ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE TO THE NORTH OF NORA. ONCE AGAIN THE INITIALIZATIONS OF THE MRF AND AVN ARE SUSPECT. THE 00Z MRF AND 06Z AVN CONTAIN NORA AND A SECOND...UNSUBSTANTIATED VORTEX...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. ON A BROADER SCALE...THE MODELS SHOW THE HIGH CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEY ALSO SHOW A WEAKNESS OR CUT-OFF LOW STAYING BEHIND THE WEST COAST TROUGH...TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MRF MOVES THE COMBINED MODEL REAL/SPURIOUS CIRCULATION SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK MODELS...NOGAPS AND THE UKMET IN GENERAL ALSO SHOW NORA GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THAT THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY AND THAT UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE NOT OFTEN CORRECTLY FORECAST...THE LONG-TERM TRACK OF NORA REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NORA COULD RESTRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL COOL POOL OF UPWELLED WATERS. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 14.4N 104.1W 85 KTS 12HR VT 20/0000Z 14.7N 104.3W 85 KTS 24HR VT 20/1200Z 15.6N 105.1W 90 KTS 36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.9N 106.2W 90 KTS 48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.8N 107J.1W 90 KTS 72HR VT 22/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W 90 KTS