National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
TTAA00 KNHC 190832
HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 1997

NORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK T-
NUMBERS.  THE EYE IS LARGE AND DIFFUSE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOT AS STRONG AS 12 HOURS AGO.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE WELL ESTABLISHED AND SINCE THE OCEAN IS
WARM...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...SINCE NORA HAS
BEEN IN THE SAME AREA FOR ALMOST A DAY...THE UPWELLING COULD DELAY
THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  

STEERING CURRENTS ARE PROBABLY WEAK OR BALANCED.  THEREFORE...LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A STRONG AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ANYTIME
SOON.  THIS HIGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ABOVE 500 MB...INDICATING
THAT IT IS A WARM HIGH AND...IN GENERAL...LITTLE MOTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  GIVEN THIS PATTERN...NORA SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  TRACK MODELS
INSIST ON MOVING NORA BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BRINGING THE HURRICANE SOUTH AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY 72 HOURS.     

REPORTS FROM SHIP (PGRO) INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM THE COAST OF THE STATE OF GUERRERO PROBABLY
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS.

AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 14.4N 104.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N 104.9W   100 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 106.0W   105 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W   110 KTS