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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-18 20:38 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 182038 COR HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 18 1997 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS MORNING THE NAVY PROVIDED AN 85 GHZ IMAGE FROM A DMSP POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE THAT SHOWED A LARGE DIAMETER EYE AND AN EXCELLENT RAINBAND STRUCTURE. THE EYE HAS BECOME SMALLER AS THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND HAS ESTABLISHED AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. NORA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR OVER 12 HOURS. THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS WERE INITIALIZED WITH NO INITIAL MOTION...AND THEY CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN FACT IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK 24 HOURS AGO. IT IS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER BAM AND THE GFDL. THE UKMET MODEL HAS THE SAME IDEA BUT IS SLOWER. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE 500 MB LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL PULL NORA NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA OR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS NOTED THAT THE AVIATION RUN OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS. THERE IS A FICTITIOUS VORTEX TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NORA THAT STEERS THE HURRICANE MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH EFFECTIVE AT 2100Z. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MALDONADO. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.0N 103.6W 90 KTS 12HR VT 19/0600Z 014.3N 104.0W 95 KTS 24HR VT 19/1800Z 14.8N 104.7W 100 KTS 36HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 105.8W 105 KTS 48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.4N 107.1W 110 KTS 72HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 109.5W 110 KTS