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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-18 08:31 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 180831 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 18 1997 LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB MIAMI IS 65 KNOTS SO NORA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. NO EYE IS EVIDENT BUT NORA CONTINUES TO HAVE INTENSE CENTRAL CONVECTION ON IR IMAGERY. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD...LOWER THAN -80C...CLOUD TOPS. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED TO THE NORTH...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE. MOTION CONTINUES SLOW. ALTHOUGH CENTER FIXES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...NORA APPARENTLY DRIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO. IT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTION SHOWS THAT THE 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL LEAVE A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BEHIND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE MAIN PART OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS WEAK CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO HAVE A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 25N LATITUDE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER THIS TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF NORA AND TURN IT MORE TO THE NORTH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL. HOWEVER...MOST OF OUR TRACK MODELS SHOW A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 1 TO 3 DAYS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.5N 103.7W 65 KTS 12HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W 7j0 KTS 24HR VT 19/0600Z 15.2N 105.0W 75 KTS 36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 106.0W 80 KTS 48HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 107.5W 85 KTS 72HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 100 KTS