National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-18 03:00 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KNHC Products for 18 Sep 1997 View All TCD Products for 18 Sep 1997 View As Image Download As Text
652 WTPZ41 KNHC 180230 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 17 1997 DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB...AFGWC...AND TAFB. THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATER. HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IMPEDED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF NORA MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AS FORECAST THIS IMPEDIMENT MAY DISAPPEAR AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. NORA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT A POSSIBLE DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY BE OCCURRING. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RESUMPTION OF THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND OUR 72-HR POSITION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL 72-HR POSITION. SINCE THE STORM REMAINS NEAR THE COAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.4N 103.0W 60 KTS 12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.7N 103.5W 65 KTS 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.4N 104.6W 70 KTS 36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.3N 105.9W 75 KTS 48HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 107.4W 80 KTS 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 111.0W 90 KTS