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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-17 08:34 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 170834 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 17 1997 THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED...BUT BEST ESTIMATES INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST RUNS OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...SO THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL 500 MB PROGNOSIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORA TO KEEP THE TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THESE FORECASTS...INTERESTS IN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. WATCHES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST. THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED. THERE IS NO CDO AT PRESENT BUT BANDING FEATURES ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A T3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...45 KNOTS. SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE...CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED. THE FORECAST FOR NORA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 102.7W 45 KTS 12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.9N 103.2W 50 KTS 24HR VT 18/0600Z 16.0N 104.2W 60 KTS 36HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 105.3W 65 KTS 48HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KTS 72HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 109.0W 85 KTS