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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-17 02:25 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 170225 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 1997 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08...BUT THIS MOTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TRACKING A POORLY DEFINED CENTER ON INFRARED IMAGERY. THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL IS NOT AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH I DID GET A FEW POINTS FROM THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING A VERY SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK FOR 72 HOURS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS ALSO SLOW AND FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFDL...AS IS THE UKMET. THE NOGAPS IS DIFFERENT SHOWING THE CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE COAST IN 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING ALMOST STATIONARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND NOGAPS AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALLOW FOR INCREASING THE WIND SPEED BY 5 KNOTS...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND THIS COULD DELAY THE EXPECTED STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXCIO HAS ADDED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA JUST EAST OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.5N 102.8W 40 KTS 12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.4N 103.3W 45 KTS 24HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W 50 KTS 36HR VT 18/1200Z 17.5N 104.5W 60 KTS 48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 105.0W 70 KTS 72HR VT 20/0000Z 20.0N 105.0W 75 KTS...INLAND