National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
TTAA00 KNHC 032039
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 03 1997

THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. 
CENTRAL CONVECTION IS STILL NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO BE CALLED A
CDO...BUT HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT.  THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED BAND
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
EXTENSIVE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY.

THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MAY BE
BEGINNING...BUT CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO STATE THIS WITH
CERTAINTY.  THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A REFORMATION SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY...BUT OVERALL THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST AVN RUN TO COLLAPSE AS A MAJOR
LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THIS
WOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ALONG WITH SOME SLOWING DURING
THE PERIOD.  THE FORECAST GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST A TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THOSE FROM EARLIER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE UK MET
OFFICE AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE STILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATEST
GFDL TRACK.  HOWEVER...A MORE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THIS FORECAST
MAY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE ADVISORIES.    
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 12.6N  48.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N  50.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.5N  53.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N  55.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N  57.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 18.5N  60.5W    65 KTS