National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
TTAA00 KNHC 020836
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 02 1997
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA HAS CUT OFF THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT TD FIVE-E HAS ENCOUNTERED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BEST
GUESS FOR THE CENTER LOCATION ON INFRARED IMAGERY IS NEAR THE EAST
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 30 KNOTS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
ON THE LAST FEW PICS...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER WATER
LATER IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ONLY A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND
THE CYCLONE COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/09.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 15.1N 118.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 15.1N 120.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 15.3N 122.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 15.6N 123.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 16.0N 125.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N 128.0W    30 KTS