National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
ACUS1 KMKC 161507
MKC AC 161506

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 161500Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMH
LEX JEF FLV EAR 25 S MHN CPR VEL 30 SSW U24 50 SE BAM 40 W OWY
40 SE BKE 55 ENE 63S ...CONT... 55 W D45 STC 25 E DBQ FDY CMH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CHS RMG P02
SLN SNY CYS COS GUP INW IGM TVL LMT 50 E BLI ...CONT... 25 SSW ART
JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW GNV AGR PBI.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDCS STG UPR TROF LIFTING NEWD INTO NV ATTM. 
THIS SYS IS EXPCD TO CONT MOVG TWD THE NRN ROCKIES DURG THE PD AS
UPSTREAM TROF DVLPS OVR ERN PAC.  VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING IS
EVIDENT THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVE BANDS OF TSTMS NOTED NR CDFNT OVR
NERN NV.  SWLY WINDS ALF AHD OF THE TROF ARE EXPCD TO ROT NEWD ACRS
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES TDA WHICH WILL PROVIDE FVRBL VERT
SPEED SHEAR TO ENHANCE STRENGTH OF CNVTN.  AMS AHD OF THE FNT IS
WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGG INCRD PTNL FOR STG
SFC WIND GUSTS ASSOCD WITH CNVTN ALG CDFNT.  TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO
INTSFY BY LATE MORNING/ERY AFTN AS TROF LIFTS NEWD AND DIURNAL
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO ADDNL AMS DESTABILIZATION.  A FEW SVR TSTMS
ARE PSBL OVR EXTRM NERN NV...SRN ID AND NWRN UT DURG THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTN HRS...WITH THREAT SPRDG NEWD ACRS RMNDR ID INTO
WRN PTNS OF MT LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE.  PRIMARY THREAT EXPCD TO BE
DMGG WIND GUSTS...ISOLD CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.     

...MID MS VLY/UPR OH VLY RGN...

MCS OVR SRN IA IS CONTG TO MOVE EWD ALG AND JUST NORTH OF WRMFNT
EXTENDING ACRS SRN IA.  CNVTN HAS WKND BLO SVR LVLS DURG THE LAST
SVRL HRS AND WW 374 NOT EXPCD TO BE IMMEDIATELY REISSUED. 
HWVR...AMS SOUTH OF WRMFNT REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTBL WITH 12Z
SOUNDINGS INDCG CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG ACRS NRN MO INTO
CNTRL IL.  PRIND CNVTV SYS WILL MOVE EWD AND MAY INTENSIFY LTR THIS
MORNING OR ERY AFTN AS IT MOVES EWD ALG SRN EDGE OF STGR WINDS ALF.

AREA FM SERN IA/EXTRM NERN MO INTO CNTRL IL WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR INDCNS OF INCRG SVR PTNL.  SYNOPTIC PAT INDCS PTNL FOR
BOW ECHO DVLPMT WITH ASSOCD DMGG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER EAST...SMALL CLUSTER OF STG/ISOLD SVR CELLS IS MOVG INTO
NRN INDIANA JUST NORTH OF WRMFNT.  AMS REMAINS MDTLY UNSTBL SOUTH
OF BNDRY WITH CAPE VALUES TO 2000 J/KG.  35-45 KT WNWLY MID LVL
WINDS SUG ACTVTY WILL SPRD ESEWD...WITH ADDNL DVLPMT PSBL IN LOW
LVL CNVGNC/WARM ADVCTN ZONE ASSOCD WITH FNTL BNDRY.  THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PSBL WW.

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

SLY LOW LVL WINDS ARE PROGD TO INCR OVR NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS
AFTN AND TNGT AS UPR TROF MOVES ACRS ROCKIES AND PRIMARY SFC LOW
DVLPS OVR NRN HI PLAINS.  LOW LVL MSTR IS EXPCD TO ADVECT NWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WITH CONDS BCMG MDTLY UNSTBL /CAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG/ BY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...WHILE VERY UNSTBL AMS WITH CAPE
OF 2500-4000 J/KG WILL REMAIN OVR CNTRL PLAINS AREA.  WRMFNT EXPCD
TO LIFT NWD INTO NRN PLAINS LTR TDA AS SFC LOW DVLPS OVR NRN HI
PLAINS...AND THIS BNDRY EXPCD TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DVLPMT LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.  IN WAKE OF MCS MOVG ACRS
IA...ANOTHER E/W BNDRY IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS PTNS OF SRN NEB
WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDNL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTM DVLPMT. 
PRESENCE OF FVRBL INSTBY AND INTENSIFYING LOW LVL JETS OVR THE
PLAINS TNGT INDCS SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. 
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH STGST CELLS...HWVR PROGD
VERT WIND STRUCTURE ALSO SUGS PTNL FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS OVR NRN
PTNS OF OTLK AREA.
   
..WEISS.. 05/16/96

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...MID ATLC...

UPR LVL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVR ERN PTNS OF THE U.S. DOWNSTREAM

FM INCOMING WRN TROF.  THIS PLACES THE MID ATLC RGN WITHIN WAA
PATTERN  IN NWLY UPR LVL FLOW.  CNVTN HAS DVLPD OVR PTNS OF THE
LOWER OH VLY THIS MRNG WITH SEWD MOVMT LIKELY DURG DAY.   THUS
ISOLD TSTMS MAY DVLP/MOVE INTO RGN LATER TDA.

...FL...

WK UPR LVL FLOW PERSISTS OVR FL BENEATH THE RIDGE CNTRD JUST NW OF
RGN.  WITH ELY COMPONENT OBSERVED THRU A DEEP LAYER EXPC W COAST
SE`A BREEZE TO BE DOMINATE FEATURE TDA...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY.

 
..DARROW.. 05/16/96