National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
ACUS1 KMKC 010716
MKC AC 010700

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 011200 - 021200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TNGT FM PTNS OF ERN
TX NEWD ACRS CNTRL/NRN LA...A SMALL PTN OF SERN OK...AND SWRN AR INTO
CNTRL/ERN AR.  THE HIGH RISK AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM ACT PRX
30 N LIT MEM GLH 40 SE AEX IAH 30 S CLL ACT.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RGT OF A LN FM CRP COT SJT 20 NW ABI SPS FYV MDH OWB BNA
CBM 30 S LFT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM DUG TCS TCC ICT GVW SPI
CMH PKB BLF HSS ATL CSG TLH.

VIGOROUS VORT MAX/SHRTWV TROF NOW EVIDENT ON STLT MOVG INTO NW MEX
IS FCST BY MODELS TO ACCLT EWD INTO TX BY 24HRS...AND LFT NEWD TO
NRN AR/SRN MO BY END OF PD.  THIS APPRS RSNBL AS NEXT SHRTWV UPSTRM
IS DIGGING SHARPLY SEWD ALG CA COAST.  LEAD SHRTWV IS FCST TO EJECT
NEWD WITH PRONOUNCED NEG TILT...SUGG STG UPR DIFFLUENCE OVR ERN TX
BY 02/00Z.  ALSO...500MB WIND MAX OF 75-85KT FCST TO MOVE NEWD FM
SRN TX TO NRN MS DURG LATTER HALF OF PD...WITH LEFT FNT QUAD AIDING
UVV FM NE TX TO MID MS VLY.

SFC DEWPTS IN UPR 60S TO NR 70 ARE IN PLACE OVR SRN/CNTRL TX AND SHUD
BE ADVCTD NWD/NEWD ON STG SLY LO-LVL FLOW TDA.  ALTHO 24HR NGM CD TROF
AT 500MB ACRS TX MAY BE OVRDONE...EXPCD CD ADVCTN ALF COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONALBLY MOIST LO-LVL AMS TO RESULT IN HIGH INSTBY OVR MUCH OF
ERN TX BY 02/00Z...WITH LIS OF -6 TO -8 EXPCD.

AS UPR VORT MAX MOVES ENEWD FM NRN MEX INTO TX AND SFC CDFNT MOVES
EWD INTO CNTRL TX DURG TDA...EXPC STG TSTMS TO DVLP ALG/AHD OF FNT
WITH ACTVTY REACHING SVR LIMITS AS PVA MOVES OVR MORE UNSTABL AMS
OVR CNTRL TX.  GRTST THRT FOR SGFNT SVR...INCLUDING TORNADOS...IS
EXPCD TO BE FM ERN TX NEWD ACRS PTNS LA/AR WHERE LO-LVL JET OF 40-45
KT SHUD PROVIDE MOST FVRBL LO-LVL SHR FOR TORNADO DVLPMT.  SVR
ACTVTY MAY REACH PTNS MID-MS AND LWR TN VLYS BY LATE IN PD AS 500MB
JET MAX PUNCHES NEWD INTO THIS AREA.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WIyLL BE ISSUED ARND 10Z.


..COPE.. 02/01/90