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352 FXUS65 KPUB 200457 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1057 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High Fire Danger for Friday and Saturday with Red Flag Warnings posted both days for the southwest and central mountains where fuels are critical. - Hot, dry and breezy across the plains with Heat Advisories expanded to include the lower Arkansas River Valley for Saturday. - Continued hot for Sunday though slightly cooler for the plains. Another critical fire weather day likely for the southwest and central mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 152 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Low level moisture has been mixing out across the area with dew points falling off into the 20s and 30s across the mountains and adjacent plains. Dew points to the south and east of a line from KTAD to KLAA are still running in the 50s. Thunderstorms have been developing along this axis this afternoon producing some small hail down around Trinidad where some CAPE up to 1500 J/kg may be hugging the Raton Ridge. Otherwise, elevated CAPE thinning will be thinning out with time, and gusty outflow winds nearing severe criteria look plausible into the evening as storms continue to percolate and move off to the east. Downdraft CAPE off SPC Meso Analysis shows up to 2000 J/kg which would support localized gusts up to 60 mph. Thunderstorms should diminish quickly after sunset. Otherwise, winds will start to increase tonight and especially into Friday as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the incoming Pacific Low. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the mountains and adjacent plains, though fuels are only reported critical across the southwest and central mountains. Red Flag Warnings area already posted for these area for Friday, which still looks on target. Across the southeast plains, downslope flow and H7 temperatures warming to around +20C will support highs above 100 degrees across much of the lower Arkansas River Valley and points northward. Have expanded Heat Advisories eastward across the plains accordingly where temperatures above the critical threshold of 105 are most likely to occur (40-70% probabilities according to NBM). Otherwise, moisture axis aloft will continue to lay up across extreme southern portions of the area, and another round of high based thunderstorms will be possible extending from the southern Sangre De Cristo mountains through Las Animas and Baca counties. Afternoon cloud development may help to hold temperatures down a few degrees so will not include the southern zones of the southeast plains in the Heat Advisories. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the primary concerns once again. -KT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 An upper-level low will push onshore over the Pacific Northwest as we move into the weekend, causing breezy southwest flow to settle in over our area. Downsloping and enhanced heating will continue our trend of warm temperatures, with Saturday's highs in the 90s to low- 100s over the plains, and 80s over the high valleys. Will have to monitor incoming trends in cloud cover and moisture in the area to determine the need for another Heat highlight, but have held off for now due to low confidence and slightly lower temperatures. Meanwhile, another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for our western mountains, where fuels are driest. Otherwise, our CWA will remain generally dry and breezy through the rest of the day. The upper trough deepens a bit on Sunday, advecting a bit more potential moisture into the region as southwest winds increase. Temperatures will level out a bit, just a few degrees shy of Saturday, with gusty surface winds. Meanwhile, models do hint at a slight uptick in precipitation chances, particularly over the far southeast plains. Southerly winds could bring up enough Gulf moisture for something of a dryline setup, though it is still unclear if we'll get enough moisture for any strong to severe storms. As of now, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon to early evening hours. A front is expected to pass over the plains on Monday, as a piece of energy from the trough ejects far to our north. Temperatures will be knocked down to near-seasonal levels, typically in the 80s over most of the lower areas, and moisture will be more abundant. This may serve to decrease critical fire weather chances, but will certainly increase the potential for more afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day through much of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will increase Friday morning and prevail through the afternoon hours. Gusts near 40 kts are possible. Winds will decrease during the evening hours. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. LLWS will be possible overnight at KCOS, with easterly surface winds and increasing southwest flow aloft. Gusts at both KCOS and KPUB of 30 kts or more are possible Friday afternoon, with the strongest gusts expected at KCOS. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Friday for COZ220-223. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220- 223. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ083>086-089- 093-095>098. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOZLEY