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503 FXUS63 KIWX 152238 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 638 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday. Peak afternoon heat indices near 90 degrees by Tuesday. - There is a low (20-40%) chance for widely scattered showers and storms along and southeast of the US 24 corridor Monday afternoon-night. - Multiple rounds of showers and storms likely late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There is the potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall on Wednesday. - The warmest and most humid air of the season arrives next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The western fringes of low level ridging will maintain dry conditions locally into tonight and Monday morning as an instability axis remains off to the south and west. A weak sfc trough and deeper moisture does lift north into areas mainly south of the US 24 corridor Monday afternoon-night in response to a convectively induced shortwave (now over far southwest Missouri) propagating east- northeast through the Ohio Valley. This may be enough to generate widely scattered showers/storms in our southeast with a slight expansion/increase to PoPs. A warmer, more humid, airmass will overspread the entire area Tuesday into Wednesday. The better low level return flow and primary MUCAPE axis likely remains off to the west for much of Tuesday in between shortwaves for only a low chance PoP (20-30%). Multiple rounds of more organized convection still looking likely late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening as a more pronounced shortwave and associated frontal wave ejects east-northeast from the Central Plains to the lower Great Lakes. Increasing low-mid level southwest flow preceding the wave provides impressive moisture transport (~70F sfc dewpoints and 1.80" plus pwats) hinting at a heavy rain/flooding threat, and potentially an organized severe risk by Wednesday afternoon-evening. The evolution of a potential morning convective complex, and where the primary MCS outflow/cold pool boundary lies out by peak heating will dictate where this severe risk materializes during the PM hours on Wednesday. Confidence is obviously low regarding these mesoscale details 4 days out, but definitely something to monitor in the coming days. Thereafter, expect a brief cooldown post-frontal into Thursday, with the warmest and most humid air of the season arriving by next weekend under an upper level ridge expanding northeast into the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 634 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 High pressure will keep VFR TAF forecast through the period for both TAF sites. Continued light northeasterly winds less than 10 kts will veer more southeasterly after 18z Mon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Andersen