National Weather Service Raw Text Product

830 
FXUS63 KGRB 132008
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
308 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers expected through the weekend, especially west
  and north of the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas.

- Stormy period expected for at least the early to mid part of the
  next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Widespread showers associated with an 850 mb warm front and 
850-700 mb frontogenesis still covered most of northern WI
this afternoon, but were gradually decreasing over north central
WI. Rain-cooled air was holding temperatures in the upper 40s to
middle 50s north, while readings had climbed into the upper 50s
and lower 60s in parts of central and east central WI.

Precipitation Chances through the Weekend: Expect the more
concentrated showers to exit far NE WI as forcing weakens this
evening, though isolated to scattered showers may persist in the
Northwoods well into the evening. A gradual increase in showers 
can be expected in NC WI late tonight into Saturday morning, as 
additional weak WAA/FGEN arrive. These showers will be of the 
light to moderate variety, and should become more scattered as 
they drift southeast during the day. The chance of showers 
persists Saturday night into Sunday, with an uptick in activity 
and even a few thunderstorms possible into our southwest counties
as modest instability arrives Sunday afternoon. Canadian high 
pressure will continue to produce light to moderate easterly winds
through the weekend, which when combined with periodic showers, 
will result in below normal temperatures across the Northwoods.

Stormy Period expected during the next Work Week: The Canadian
high will shift east early next week, allowing for southerly
winds to develop and bring warmer, more moist and unstable air 
into the region. A cold front will approach NW WI late Monday into
Monday night, and may trigger a round of storms, which would
then move into the forecast area. The front will edge eastward
Tuesday into Wednesday, with possible rounds of convection
developing as a couple short-waves move through the region, and a
surface wave lifts north along the boundary on Wednesday. 
Although timing is uncertain, this period has potential for severe
weather, as a much more unstable air mass will be in place, and
deep layer shear will be sufficient for storm organization. Storm
chances are more uncertain later in the week, as models diverge.
This will be be a warmer and more humid period, at least through 
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Widespread rain showers will continue to impact areas mainly west
and north of the Fox Valley this afternoon, but these should move
out of far NE WI this evening, leaving only isolated to scattered
showers overnight. Another area of more concentrated showers could
arrive late tonight into early Saturday, with the greatest impact
occurring over NC WI. The potential for thunder through this TAF 
period remains low.

Ceilings will remain in the IFR/MVFR range over the northwest part
of the CWA (including the RHI/AUW/CWA TAF sites) through the TAF 
period, and should drop to MVFR in the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas 
for a while tonight into early Saturday. 

Gusty NE-E winds will occur across C/EC WI through this evening, 
with the strongest gusts (near 25 kts) occuring in the Fox Valley.
Winds should gradually subside tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch