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721 FXUS63 KGRB 130345 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1045 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Waves of showers tied to mid-level fgen and warm air advection continue to drift across central and northern WI this evening. Outside of a few sprinkles, thus far most of the activity has remained northwest of the Fox Valley. Earlier models, including CAMs, struggled with look of upstream convection over IA/MN this evening. Generally, expect remnants of storms along MN/IA state line to phase with next batch of showers and storms currently shifting east across central MN. This activity will shift across central WI and eventually into northern WI late tonight. Isolated narrow areas of moderate to heavy rainfall could occur as has been observed this evening upstream. Flash Flood Guidance is on the higher end, but some spots over central WI have seen nearly 0.75 inch of rain. So, there could be minor flooding issues if additional rainfall falls across the same locations. Overall though, expect rainfall rates to be held down as higher MUCAPES, elevated instability remain well to the southwest of our area. Also, given limited instability, kept only mention of thunder central to north-central WI. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and a few thunderstorms tonight into Friday. Low risk for severe storms. Probability of 1 inch or more of rain remains 20 to 40 percent mainly north of US-8. - Drier Saturday, then additional chances for rain and storms Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Scattered showers are starting to redevelop to the west along an axis of 700mb moisture and convergence. As we head into this evening this area of convergence will gradually shift north with 850mb warm air advection and convergence adding to low level lift. The environment will saturate from the top down as it works through the drier air at the surface. This area of convergence will linger over northern Wisconsin through Friday and Friday night. With precipitable water values around an inch some heavier rainfall is possible, especially where lift is the strongest, which currently looks to be north of US-8 where probabilities of an inch or more is 20 to 40 percent. The upper level flow remains quite westerly but a shortwave trough moves through Saturday morning bringing some drier conditions for the afternoon and evening. Moisture returns Sunday, but lift is marginal with limited positive vorticity advection, hence only 20 to 40 percent PoPs across most of the area. Slightly higher chances (40 to 50 percent) are expected Monday as another shortwave moves through. The flow becomes more southwesterly for Tuesday ahead of a deeper shortwave Wednesday. This period will have our best chances for rain and thunderstorms (50 to 70 percent) due to the better lift in place. Cooler temperatures are expected over the next few days with 50s and 60s in the north and 70s to the south. As we head through the weekend into next week however highs warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will largely be in the 40s and 50s until next week when they'll be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Rain showers continue to spread across central and northern WI. Generally seeing VFR ceilings with MVFR visibility where rain is steadiest. Additional waves of showers will work across central and northern WI overnight through Friday morning. A few showers may also impact the Fox Valley and east-central WI, though this chance is not as high as from central WI into northern WI (AUW/CWA/RHI). Easterly winds will remain elevated tonight around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Friday into Friday evening, ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR central to north-central, with MVFR to lower VFR elsewhere. MVFR or even IFR visibilities will occur at times over northern WI, including at RHI as showers prevail there. Easterly winds will remain gusty at times. Patchy fog may develop by Friday evening over northern WI. The potential for thunder through the TAF period remains low. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.........JLA DISCUSSION.....RAH AVIATION.......JLA