National Weather Service Raw Text Product

381 
ACUS11 KWNS 112024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112024 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 112024Z - 112230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PREDOMINANT DAMAGING WIND AND A TEMPORALLY LIMITED TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP E OF WW 534 TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WHILE WATCH TYPE IS UNCLEAR...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
LIKELY BY 22Z.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF ARCING TSTMS ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS INTENSIFIED
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS AROUND 50 KT WHICH
PLACES THE MO PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF WW
534 AROUND 2230Z. AS THE CONVECTION OCCLUDES THE NRN EXTENT OF UPPER
50S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN CNTRL MO...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK
WITHIN WW 534. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS
SEMI-PERPENDICULAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE TSTM BAND...A RISK FOR
AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST TO THE MS RIVER. AN
APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN TEMPORALLY CONFINED TO ABOUT
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET AS THE LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY
FURTHER WANES...A SCENARIO WELL SUPPORTED BY CAM GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 11/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42189216 42419187 42309104 41879035 41378997 40888989
            40148991 39689000 39409025 39169088 39199133 39159174
            39329213 40359202 42189216