National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
000 
ACUS11 KWNS 101955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101955 
MOZ000-ARZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...WRN KY AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101955Z - 102200Z

NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 743 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.


PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/WEAK DRY LINE HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY...ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT REMAINS
UNSTABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING PAST FEW HOURS ALONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
STRONG...AND SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO
SEVERE SQUALL LINE.  GIVEN VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN WAKE OF
SURFACE WIND SHIFT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

36339082 36819023 37118978 37238878 36238873 34848995
34379078 34269136 34609163 35329149 
928 
ACUS11 KWNS 101955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101955 
MOZ000-ARZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...WRN KY AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101955Z - 102200Z

NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 743 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.


PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/WEAK DRY LINE HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY...ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT REMAINS
UNSTABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING PAST FEW HOURS ALONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
STRONG...AND SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO
SEVERE SQUALL LINE.  GIVEN VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN WAKE OF
SURFACE WIND SHIFT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..KERR.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

36339082 36819023 37118978 37238878 36238873 34848995
34379078 34269136 34609163 35329149