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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-27 12:48 UTC
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000 ACUS01 KWNS 271248 SWODY1 SPC AC 271242 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT FROM EXTREME NERN KS...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN AND ERN MO...AS WELL AS MUCH OF IL AND INDIANA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CID 20 ENE CGX 25 ENE SBN 15 SSW FWA 40 ESE IND 35 ESE MVN 40 NNW POF 10 WSW TBN 35 ENE MKC 30 N TOP 15 E CNK 15 NW CNK 10 NNW LNK 25 N CID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CLE 35 W JKL 10 SW LIT 40 N TYR 40 S DUA 45 ESE OKC 30 SE ICT 45 W HLC 30 W MCK 20 SE OSH 15 SE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ROC 20 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SSW ACY 35 SW DCA GSO 25 NW GAD 40 SSW PBF 20 WSW GGG 35 SSE TPL 40 WNW AUS 65 SSE CDS 20 N CSM 55 SSE GLD 20 SW LIC 25 SW PUC U31 40 SSW NFL 40 ESE FAT 20 SE MER 35 WNW MFR 65 NW BNO 35 NW SUN 15 SSW WEY 30 E CDR 10 S 9V9 15 WSW MKT 35 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 10 SW FMY ...CONT... 25 SW CTY 35 NNE VLD 15 S SAV. ...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA TODAY AND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. INTENSE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NE/KS/IA/MO TODAY...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA TONIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS/SWRN NE AND WILL TRACK ENEWD INTO IA BY EVENING ALONG STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT...AND THEN INTO LOWER MI BY EARLY SUNDAY. DRYLINE ACCOMPANYING THE PLAINS CYCLONE WILL SWEEP INTO WRN MO... AND THROUGH MUCH OF OK AND NWRN TX BY EVENING...AS COLD FRONT DROPS SWD ACROSS NE AND KS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. ...ERN KS/NE INTO SRN IA/MO... BROAD ZONE OF WAA INDUCED ASCENT/DESTABLIZATION WAS OCCURRING BENEATH LARGE SCALE COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JETS AND SUSTAINING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WAS COINCIDENT WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM AND STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR BASED ON MORNING RAOBS FROM SGF...TOP...AND OAX. A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS NEWD ACROSS KS/MO/IA/IL THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 40-60 KT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE TODAY. WHILE LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS SRN IA...POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WILL DEPEND UPON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. A WELL- DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO SWRN KS. THIS CLEARING SHOULD MOVE INTO NERN KS/SERN NE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR ALSO DEVELOPS NWD TOWARD THE REGION. SURFACE HEATING/MIXING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 800-1200 J/KG/ ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL/SRN MO SSWWD INTO ERN OK...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. STRONG CONVERGENCE/LIFT INVOF SURFACE LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG NE/KS BORDER DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD AID TSTM INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE IN THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ENCOUNTERS GREATER INSTABILITY FROM EXTREME SERN NE INTO NRN MO AND SRN IA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND. A HEIGHTENED TORNADO PROBABILITY....AND POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES...WILL OCCUR WHERE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET RESULT IN ENHANCED 0-3 KM SRH OF 300-600 M2/S2. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO SOUTH-CNTRL IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO NRN IL/SRN WI DURING THE NIGHT. TORNADO/WIND THREAT SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME BUT HAIL POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO LOWER MI. ...CNTRL/ERN MO INTO IL/IN/OH LATE... GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORM INITIATION EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL MO WHERE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAINTAINING STORM UPDRAFTS GIVEN INTENSITY OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...FORCING AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE OVER CNTRL/ERN MO SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY EVENING. VERY FAST CELL MOTION WILL RESULT FROM MEAN WIND OF 60-90 KT ACROSS THIS REGION. INITIAL CELLS MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG FORCING ALONG THE SURGING DRYLINE/FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR MCS FROM ERN MO INTO CNTRL AND SRN IL BY LATE EVENING. GIVEN STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...AND 75 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE....POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS IL/IN AND THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT. ...OZARKS TO ARKLATEX... A FEW STRONG/SEVERE HAIL STORMS MAY CLIP NWRN AR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER NERN OK. AS STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR LIFT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MORNING RAOBS FROM FWD AND LZK SHOW STRONG CAP EXISTS OVER THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...AS AXIS OF GREATER MLCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IS POSSIBLE FROM TXK AREA NEWD TO SRN MO BY EVENING. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THIS AXIS...FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 04/27/02
844 ACUS01 KWNS 271248 SWODY1 SPC AC 271242 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT FROM EXTREME NERN KS...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN AND ERN MO...AS WELL AS MUCH OF IL AND INDIANA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CID 20 ENE CGX 25 ENE SBN 15 SSW FWA 40 ESE IND 35 ESE MVN 40 NNW POF 10 WSW TBN 35 ENE MKC 30 N TOP 15 E CNK 15 NW CNK 10 NNW LNK 25 N CID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CLE 35 W JKL 10 SW LIT 40 N TYR 40 S DUA 45 ESE OKC 30 SE ICT 45 W HLC 30 W MCK 20 SE OSH 15 SE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ROC 20 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SSW ACY 35 SW DCA GSO 25 NW GAD 40 SSW PBF 20 WSW GGG 35 SSE TPL 40 WNW AUS 65 SSE CDS 20 N CSM 55 SSE GLD 20 SW LIC 25 SW PUC U31 40 SSW NFL 40 ESE FAT 20 SE MER 35 WNW MFR 65 NW BNO 35 NW SUN 15 SSW WEY 30 E CDR 10 S 9V9 15 WSW MKT 35 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 10 SW FMY ...CONT... 25 SW CTY 35 NNE VLD 15 S SAV. ...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA TODAY AND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. INTENSE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NE/KS/IA/MO TODAY...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA TONIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN KS/SWRN NE AND WILL TRACK ENEWD INTO IA BY EVENING ALONG STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT...AND THEN INTO LOWER MI BY EARLY SUNDAY. DRYLINE ACCOMPANYING THE PLAINS CYCLONE WILL SWEEP INTO WRN MO... AND THROUGH MUCH OF OK AND NWRN TX BY EVENING...AS COLD FRONT DROPS SWD ACROSS NE AND KS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. ...ERN KS/NE INTO SRN IA/MO... BROAD ZONE OF WAA INDUCED ASCENT/DESTABLIZATION WAS OCCURRING BENEATH LARGE SCALE COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JETS AND SUSTAINING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WAS COINCIDENT WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM AND STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR BASED ON MORNING RAOBS FROM SGF...TOP...AND OAX. A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS NEWD ACROSS KS/MO/IA/IL THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 40-60 KT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE TODAY. WHILE LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS SRN IA...POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WILL DEPEND UPON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. A WELL- DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO SWRN KS. THIS CLEARING SHOULD MOVE INTO NERN KS/SERN NE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR ALSO DEVELOPS NWD TOWARD THE REGION. SURFACE HEATING/MIXING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 800-1200 J/KG/ ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL/SRN MO SSWWD INTO ERN OK...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. STRONG CONVERGENCE/LIFT INVOF SURFACE LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG NE/KS BORDER DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD AID TSTM INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE IN THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ENCOUNTERS GREATER INSTABILITY FROM EXTREME SERN NE INTO NRN MO AND SRN IA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND. A HEIGHTENED TORNADO PROBABILITY....AND POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES...WILL OCCUR WHERE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET RESULT IN ENHANCED 0-3 KM SRH OF 300-600 M2/S2. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO SOUTH-CNTRL IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO NRN IL/SRN WI DURING THE NIGHT. TORNADO/WIND THREAT SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME BUT HAIL POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO LOWER MI. ...CNTRL/ERN MO INTO IL/IN/OH LATE... GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORM INITIATION EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL MO WHERE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAINTAINING STORM UPDRAFTS GIVEN INTENSITY OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...FORCING AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE OVER CNTRL/ERN MO SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY EVENING. VERY FAST CELL MOTION WILL RESULT FROM MEAN WIND OF 60-90 KT ACROSS THIS REGION. INITIAL CELLS MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG FORCING ALONG THE SURGING DRYLINE/FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR MCS FROM ERN MO INTO CNTRL AND SRN IL BY LATE EVENING. GIVEN STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...AND 75 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE....POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS IL/IN AND THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT. ...OZARKS TO ARKLATEX... A FEW STRONG/SEVERE HAIL STORMS MAY CLIP NWRN AR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER NERN OK. AS STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR LIFT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MORNING RAOBS FROM FWD AND LZK SHOW STRONG CAP EXISTS OVER THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...AS AXIS OF GREATER MLCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IS POSSIBLE FROM TXK AREA NEWD TO SRN MO BY EVENING. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THIS AXIS...FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 04/27/02