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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-27 05:36 UTC
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000 ACUS01 KWNS 270536 SWODY1 SPC AC 270527 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SZL 15 NW STJ 30 ESE BIE LNK 25 W DSM 40 NE MLI 25 SSE AZO 45 SE FWA 20 WSW LUK 35 SE MVN 20 NW TBN 25 SW SZL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 E HLG 35 ENE BWG 25 W TXK 35 NE DAL 10 W ADM 20 N BVO 30 ESE RSL 20 SW EAR 45 WNW OLU 30 ENE FOD 30 S MKE 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 S ABY 40 WNW BHM 40 S GLH 45 ENE ACT 15 ESE SEP 30 NNW MWL FSI 20 WSW P28 55 S GLD 25 ENE ASE 25 ENE CDC 20 ENE TPH 30 NW NFL 80 ESE 4LW 40 E BOI 15 W JAC 35 W CPR 25 ENE AIA 45 SE FSD 30 SSE CWA 15 S APN ...CONT... 25 N BUF 20 WSW ELM 35 E AOO 25 WNW TRI 45 WSW AVL 40 SE SPA SOP 15 NE ORF. ---POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES IN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY--- ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL RACE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY 28/12Z. MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ...ERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN MO/CTRL IL... STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH 60 KNOT 850 MB JET OVER MISSOURI. COUPLED JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN 150 KNOT 250 MB JET OVER JAMES BAY AND 135 KNOT JET OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. INITIAL AREA OF WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. EVOLUTION OF THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAPID ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORMS ARE THE KEY TO SIGNIFICANCE OF TORNADO AND SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS AND DEGREE OF DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW...POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LONG TRACK TORNADIC STORMS IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. ...OHIO RIVER VALLEY... 00Z ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AIRMASS DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WITH 60-70 KNOT 850 MB JET SPREADING INTO OHIO BY 28/06Z. STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAPIDLY PROGRESSING MCS FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO DURING THE NIGHT AND FORMATION OF WESTERLY 700 MB JET OF 70-80 KNOTS JUST BEHIND THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EVOLVING INTO LINEAR MCS DURING THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY RACES EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO. ...OZARKS AREA... POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS ONGOING WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS RACE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL MOVE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF AREA...MUCH DOUBT EXISTS AS TO LONGEVITY AND SEVERITY OF STORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..CRAVEN.. 04/27/02
769 ACUS01 KWNS 270536 SWODY1 SPC AC 270527 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SZL 15 NW STJ 30 ESE BIE LNK 25 W DSM 40 NE MLI 25 SSE AZO 45 SE FWA 20 WSW LUK 35 SE MVN 20 NW TBN 25 SW SZL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 E HLG 35 ENE BWG 25 W TXK 35 NE DAL 10 W ADM 20 N BVO 30 ESE RSL 20 SW EAR 45 WNW OLU 30 ENE FOD 30 S MKE 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 S ABY 40 WNW BHM 40 S GLH 45 ENE ACT 15 ESE SEP 30 NNW MWL FSI 20 WSW P28 55 S GLD 25 ENE ASE 25 ENE CDC 20 ENE TPH 30 NW NFL 80 ESE 4LW 40 E BOI 15 W JAC 35 W CPR 25 ENE AIA 45 SE FSD 30 SSE CWA 15 S APN ...CONT... 25 N BUF 20 WSW ELM 35 E AOO 25 WNW TRI 45 WSW AVL 40 SE SPA SOP 15 NE ORF. ---POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES IN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY--- ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL RACE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY 28/12Z. MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG DOWN THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ...ERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN MO/CTRL IL... STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH 60 KNOT 850 MB JET OVER MISSOURI. COUPLED JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN 150 KNOT 250 MB JET OVER JAMES BAY AND 135 KNOT JET OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. INITIAL AREA OF WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. EVOLUTION OF THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAPID ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORMS ARE THE KEY TO SIGNIFICANCE OF TORNADO AND SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS AND DEGREE OF DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW...POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LONG TRACK TORNADIC STORMS IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. ...OHIO RIVER VALLEY... 00Z ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AIRMASS DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WITH 60-70 KNOT 850 MB JET SPREADING INTO OHIO BY 28/06Z. STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAPIDLY PROGRESSING MCS FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO DURING THE NIGHT AND FORMATION OF WESTERLY 700 MB JET OF 70-80 KNOTS JUST BEHIND THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EVOLVING INTO LINEAR MCS DURING THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY RACES EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO. ...OZARKS AREA... POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS ONGOING WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS RACE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL MOVE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF AREA...MUCH DOUBT EXISTS AS TO LONGEVITY AND SEVERITY OF STORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..CRAVEN.. 04/27/02