National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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000 
ACUS03 KWNS 241136
SWODY3
SPC AC 241055
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
 
VALID 261200-271200

THERE IS A RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST EXPECTED TO MOVE E ACROSS NRN AZ ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY.  FROM
THERE THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NEWD...REACHING WRN KS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AS FLATTENED BUT STILL DOMINANT RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER
THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NOW
CROSSING THE N CNTRL STATES WILL HAVE BEGUN TO REDEVELOP NWD/EWD
ACROSS SW TX BY 12Z FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 850 MB BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
HAVE REACHED THE RED RIVER BY 00Z SATURDAY...AIR MASS RECOVERY AT
THE SURFACE WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION.  FARTHER W...PROGRESSION OF AZ SYSTEM SHOULD
DRIVE ERN NM LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EWD INTO W TX LATER IN THE PERIOD. 

...ERN NM/W TX...
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING OF MID
AND UPPER CLOUDS OVER ERN NM ON FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE
HEATING INVOF LEE TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE 50S GIVEN PREVIOUS 2 DAYS OF
LOW LEVEL E/SELY FLOW INVOF STALLING COLD FRONT.  SUFFICIENT DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS DO FORM AS MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TO AOA 70 KTS.  A THREAT WILL THEREFORE EXIST FOR
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER FAR ERN NM AND PERHAPS
FAR SW TX...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR EWD TO THE TX
BORDER.        

ANY STORMS FORMING IN NM WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY
ENCOUNTER COOLER/CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT IN TX FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY...HOWEVER...SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS W TX LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS AZ UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER TO REGION.  A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND  
NWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS LATER FRIDAY...ALONG PATH OF MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED UPLIFT AHEAD OF AZ VORT.  FARTHER E...WEAKER ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF MO
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

..CORFIDI.. 04/24/02
 
461 
ACUS03 KWNS 241136
SWODY3
SPC AC 241055
 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
 
VALID 261200-271200

THERE IS A RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST EXPECTED TO MOVE E ACROSS NRN AZ ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY.  FROM
THERE THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NEWD...REACHING WRN KS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AS FLATTENED BUT STILL DOMINANT RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER
THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NOW
CROSSING THE N CNTRL STATES WILL HAVE BEGUN TO REDEVELOP NWD/EWD
ACROSS SW TX BY 12Z FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 850 MB BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
HAVE REACHED THE RED RIVER BY 00Z SATURDAY...AIR MASS RECOVERY AT
THE SURFACE WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION.  FARTHER W...PROGRESSION OF AZ SYSTEM SHOULD
DRIVE ERN NM LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EWD INTO W TX LATER IN THE PERIOD. 

...ERN NM/W TX...
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING OF MID
AND UPPER CLOUDS OVER ERN NM ON FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE
HEATING INVOF LEE TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE 50S GIVEN PREVIOUS 2 DAYS OF
LOW LEVEL E/SELY FLOW INVOF STALLING COLD FRONT.  SUFFICIENT DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS DO FORM AS MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TO AOA 70 KTS.  A THREAT WILL THEREFORE EXIST FOR
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER FAR ERN NM AND PERHAPS
FAR SW TX...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR EWD TO THE TX
BORDER.        

ANY STORMS FORMING IN NM WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY
ENCOUNTER COOLER/CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT IN TX FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY...HOWEVER...SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS W TX LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS AZ UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER TO REGION.  A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND  
NWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS LATER FRIDAY...ALONG PATH OF MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED UPLIFT AHEAD OF AZ VORT.  FARTHER E...WEAKER ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF MO
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

..CORFIDI.. 04/24/02