National Weather Service Raw Text Product

128 
ACUS1 KMKC 232010
SWODY1
MKC AC 232007

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW LEX 25 S MSL 35 SW PBF PRX 15 E MKO 50 SE VIH 30 N MMO
15 SSW AZO 20 ENE TOL 35 SSW LEX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ROC DUJ
15 NW BLF 20 NE LYH 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 20 SSE FHU 65 SSW SOW
40 ESE INW 45 WNW GUP 45 SE FMN 40 NNW LVS 40 SW CVS 50 NNE HOB
15 SW LBB 30 SE LTS 20 E OKC 20 NNE TUL 40 S SZL 25 NNE UIN
10 E DBQ ANJ.


...IL/IND/WRN OH...
PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
RESULTED IN WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALONG PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NRN IL ATTM.  HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SUGGESTS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY WAS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM SRN IL
NEWD INTO CNTRL IND WHERE 100 MB MLCAPE HAS RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG.
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE IL/IND
BORDER. BAND OF 45-55 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON VWP DATA
ACROSS THE REGION INDICATES SUFFICIENT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER
EXISTS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL
COOLING RESULTS IN A DIMINISHED THREAT OF SEVERE.

...MO/AR/WRN KY/TN...
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG SEVERAL PREFRONTAL BOUNDARIES...AND
ALSO ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER SRN MO/NWRN AR...WILL
CONTINUE TO AID STORM INITIATION WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THIS AREA...STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD
BE MAINTAINED BY DEVELOPING OF COLD POOL/OUTFLOW. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. SEE MCD 2067 AND SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS FOR SHORT
TERM FCST INFO.

...GA/FL...
LIFT ALONG CONVERGING SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITHIN
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS SRN GA AND MUCH
OF FL WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLD
DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SEE MCD 2068 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TX...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN...CNTRL...
AND NRN TX THROUGH EVENING. AIRMASS WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE WITH STRING DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP VERTICAL MOTION WAS BECOMING SEPARATED
FROM THE FRONTAL ZONE...ENOUGH LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15-25 KT WILL
FAVOR PRIMARILY MULTICELL STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SEE MCD 2070 FOR FURTHER INFO.

..CARBIN.. 09/23/01