National Weather Service Raw Text Product

007 
ACUS1 KMKC 231556
SWODY1
MKC AC 231552

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LOZ
MSL ELD PRX FYV SLO BEH JXN FDY LOZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART UCA AVP HGR DAN
SOP 10 SE ILM ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG GNT LVS CDS OKC JLN JEF MLI
LNR ESC ANJ.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IA/MO.  THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MORNING.  STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS
PERIOD...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...IL/IND/OH...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IA/MO WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS
IL/IND/OH.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF TROUGH IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING...AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY BE PRESENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  IF SQUALL LINE CAN
DEVELOP...SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT AND STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY AID
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2066 FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

...KY/TN/AR...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH AS SERN MO.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THROUGHOUT THIS AREA COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG FROM WESTERN AR INTO KY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER INTO SOUTHERN IL
AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES INTO REGION.  DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
LOW MELTING LEVELS...AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE
LARGE HAIL FORMATION IN STRONGER CELLS.  RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL
AIR AND EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION INTO A SQUALL LINE MAY POSE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN TN AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN MS BEFORE DIMINISHING.

...GA/AL/FL...
MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION SHOW SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND
RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-10 TO -12 AT 500MB OVER AL/GA
AND -8 TO -10 OVER FL/.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND POCKETS
OF FULL DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION.

...TX...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL PREFRONTAL TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX TODAY.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON.

..HART.. 09/23/01