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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2001-09-23 13:09 UTC
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082 ACUS1 KMKC 231309 SWODY1 MKC AC 231307 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E LEX 20 E BNA 40 E PBF 20 NNE HOT 30 SE HRO 45 ENE ALN 25 WSW BEH 25 E AZO 30 S FDY 30 E LEX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 50 SSW GUP 55 SSW ALS 40 WNW AMA 35 S GAG 20 NNE PNC 20 ESE TOP 30 E OTM 20 SSE LNR 35 SE RHI 40 WNW ANJ ...CONT... ART 35 ENE BGM 20 SW ABE 15 SSE HGR 10 SSW CHO 15 NNW GSO 20 E CLT 20 NE FLO 10 SE ILM. ...LOWER OH THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN IA THROUGH MO AND THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN PRE-FRONTAL REGION FROM NWRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH IL AND MO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIMIT HEATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER... STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AS THEY ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD WITH TIME AND BECOME FURTHER DETACHED FROM RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY... LIMITING MOISTURE ADVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVOLVE INTO LINES AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS. STRONGER 3-6 KM FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD AND OVERLAP WARM SECTOR. WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL... LIMITING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO GENERALLY 40 KT OR LESS. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE NE OF SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SHEAR IN THAT AREA. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES. HOWEVER...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY WITH INITIAL STORMS. DESPITE STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES OVER MI...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...TX... MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP FROM N CNTRL THROUGH WRN TX. THIS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD THROUGH TX DESPITE LIMITED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL KEEP A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LIMITED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 09/23/01