National Weather Service Raw Text Product

402 
ACUS1 KMKC 020201
SWODY1
MKC AC 020201

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 020200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHA
20 NW HSV 10 SE P02 15 N VIH 35 NE COU 20 ESE UIN 25 SW DEC
35 W SDF CSV CHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 W EAU 35 SW STC 25 NW AXN 20 SW BJI HIB 30 W MQT 35 NE GRB
15 E OSH 25 WSW OSH VOK 35 W EAU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MKL 20 SSW P02
45 NE SZL 20 ESE FOD ALO MMO 30 N LEX 20 NNW SPA AHN GAD 40 S MKL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE OSC GRR LNR
RWF REJ BZN PUW 35 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 15 W 4LW
10 E RNO 30 NW SFO.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SEWD OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE EVENING UPPER
AIR CHARTS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD INTO THE
TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER IA...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ELEVATED OVER
STABLE SURFACE-AIR LEFT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
AND SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OHIO
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING.  THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SPI AND BNA
WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...SGF AND LIT/S SOUNDINGS WITHIN
INFLOW REGIME SUGGEST STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
H85 THERMAL GRADIENT EVIDENT ALONG THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.  THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD TRACK SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE TN VALLEY.  STRONG
NWLY FLOW WITH H5 WINDS AROUND 70 KT WILL OVERRIDE 30-40 KT SWLY
JET AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  A FEW
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY
THREAT GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
SEVERAL STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD OUT OF ND AND MN
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AT THIS
TIME.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD
OF IT.  SURFACE LOW OVER NRN MN CURRENTLY WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT
QUICKLY E-NEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOW COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.  A FEW STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVERNIGHT INTO
CNTRL MN AND WI GIVEN LOW WBZ LEVELS AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR...THOUGH
SEVERITY/COVERAGE OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING. 
 
..EVANS.. 06/02/98