National Weather Service Raw Text Product

331 
ACUS1 KMKC 011939
SWODY1
MKC AC 011939

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 011930Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHA
25 ENE HSV 40 E MKL 15 NW DYR 30 NW P02 15 N VIH 45 WNW STL
25 NNW ALN 10 E SLO 10 E OWB 15 W CSV CHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E MSP 30 S JMS 25 WNW GFK 45 SE D45 ELO 30 W MQT 35 NE GRB
15 E OSH 25 WSW OSH 20 SW VOK 35 E MSP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI
AYS 50 ESE MCN 40 SW AGS 20 S CAE 10 N FLO 20 N OAJ 25 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JAX 25 ESE VLD
25 NNE TLH MAI 50 SW SEM 30 N MEI 25 WNW UOX ARG 25 E SZL OMA
25 WNW SUX 15 NW YKN 30 SE 9V9 35 SW REJ 35 WSW COD 25 S MQM
20 S 27U 50 E S80 10 SW 3TH 80 ENE 63S ...CONT... 65 ESE OSC DTW
30 SSW FDY 35 ESE LUK TRI 30 ESE CLT RWI 30 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW LOL 55 N BIH
20 E SAC 30 WSW RBL 40 ESE CEC 25 NW MFR 10 WNW 4LW 25 SW LOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FMY
15 NNE PBI.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER IOWA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...STATIONARY FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THUS...AS A 40-50 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWEST 850
MB JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...STRONG POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST.  

STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED BENEATH 65-70 KNOT 500 MB
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND MAX.  ETA MUCAPE FORECASTS OF 1500-2500 J/KG
AND BRN SHEAR OF 80-100 M2/S2 SUGGEST ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN STL AREA AFTER 00Z
AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 02/12Z.  

...SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...

THREAT FOR SEVERE IS WANING IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST.  LATEST SBCAPE WERE ABOUT 3000 J/KG...WITH
40 KNOT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.  THUS...ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL BE SEVERE WITH THREAT FOR EITHER LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 03Z AS DIURNAL
HEATING IS LOST AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PULLS WELL EAST OF AREA. 

...UPPER MIDWEST...

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK TOWARD WISCONSIN
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN DURING THE PERIOD.  POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S HAS RESULTED IN SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  

STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF JUST
7000 FEET AGL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH BRN SHEAR OF 35-45 M2/S2. 

ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SURFACE LOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.   
 
..CRAVEN.. 06/01/98