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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP3 Product Timestamp: 1997-10-06 03:00 UTC
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387 WTPZ43 KNHC 060249 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 1997 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS HAD A GOOD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ALL DAY. NOW...A SMALL SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND IT IS PRUDENT TO START DEPRESSION ADVISORIES. THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL INDICATES AN ABSENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THIS SYSTEM AND THE FEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS AVAILABLE INDICATE SLOW STRENGTHENING...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE SLOW EASTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE DIVERGENT. THE DEEP BAM GOES SOUTHWEST AND THE SHALLOW BAM...CLIPER...AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GFDL AND MEDIUM SHOW LITTLE MOTION. WITH SUCH DIVERSE GUIDANCE THE FORECAST IS TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS. PERHAPS THE NEXT GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 00Z AVIATION RUN WILL RESOLVE SOME OF THIS DIVERGENCE. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT THREATEN MEXICO...A PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 12.0N 95.2W 30 KTS 12HR VT 06/1200Z 12.0N 94.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 07/0000Z 12.0N 94.5W 40 KTS 36HR VT 07/1200Z 12.0N 94.5W 45 KTS 48HR VT 08/0000Z 12.0N 94.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 09/0000Z 12.0N 94.5W 55 KTS