National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-22 14:42 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KNHC Products for 22 Sep 1997 View All TCD Products for 22 Sep 1997 View As Image Download As Text
000 TTAA00 KNHC 221442 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 22 1997 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE DIAMETER EYE...BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST NOW LOOKS THINNER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THE T NUMBERS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE DUE TO THE WARMING OF THE COLD SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES...THIS MAY BE ANOTHER TEMPORARY TREND AND THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS WILL BE HELD UP FOR 12 HOURS ANYWAY. THEREFORE... INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 110 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND INVOLVEMENT WITH LAND. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. THERE IS A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND NORA IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE GFDL...AVIATION...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...INDICATE THIS. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN OUR OFFICIAL TRACK...WHILE THE MID AND DEEP LAYER BAMS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IF THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 18.7N 111.4W 110 KTS 12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.3N 112.3W 110 KTS 24HR VT 23/1200Z 20.4N 113.0W 110 KTS 36HR VT 24/0000Z 21.9N 113.3W 105 KTS 48HR VT 24/1200Z 23.7N 113.4W 100 KTS 72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W 85 KTS