National Weather Service Raw Text Product

834 
WTPZ41 KNHC 181444
TCDEP1
HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 18 1997
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE EYE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB.  THE EYE IS LARGE AND RATHER RAGGED LOOKING BUT WILL
LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME.  THE HURRICANE IS OVER WARM
...29 TO 30C...WATER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS BECOMING
EVEN BETTER ESTABLISHED.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR AND THE
WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND.

NORA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR OVER 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL
MOVEMENT.  A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS HAS BEEN BLOCKING NORA FROM MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
MEXICAN COAST.  THIS ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD...WHILE A 500 MB LOW CUTS OFF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE RESULTING STEERING FOR NORA
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS.  OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND IN FACT SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.  IT IS
NOT CLEAR IF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NORA MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 14.2N 103.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 14.4N 104.0W    85 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.7N 104.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 15.9N 105.8W    95 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 17.3N 107.1W   100 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W   100 KTS