National Weather Service Raw Text Product

902 
ACUS1 KMKC 020604
SWODY1
MKC AC 020604

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

REF WW NUMBER 80 VALID TIL 0800Z.
REF WW NUMBER 81 VALID TIL 0900Z.
REF WW NUMBER 82 VALID TIL 1000Z.
REF WW NUMBER 83 VALID TIL 1000Z.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU TNGT FM MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL
LA THRU MUCH OF MS INTO NRN AND WRN AL.  THE MDT RISK IS RIGHT OF
A LINE FROM 20 S BTR 30 ENE LCH 20 S POE 45 NNW POE 15 NNW MLU GWO
20 ENE TUP HSV GAD 35 S ANB 35 S SEM 35 N GPT 20 S BTR.

SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 25 ESE CLL 35 WNW LFK SHV 10 NNW
GLH 40 NNW TUP 15 S BNA 20 E CSV 25 SE TRI 35 NW RWI 20 E ECG
...CONT... 25 E SAV 25 WSW MGR 30 S CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CRP 40 E SAT
15 NW TPL 20 NNE TYR 25 NW ELD 25 ENE MEM BWG 25 E LUK HLG
25 NNE IPT 25 SSW POU 15 SW ISP ...CONT... SSI 15 W AQQ.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MID/UPR LVL SHRTWV TROF/ASSOCD STG VORT MAX IS MOVG EWD ACRS SWRN
TX AND IS EXPCD TO BE OVR THE MID RIO GRANDE VLY BY THE BGNG OF THE
PD.  LTST SFC ANLYS INDCS WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCRG AHD OF THE UPR
SYS OVR S CNTRL TX WITH A CDFNTL BNDRY THAT EXTDS NEWD ACRS NWRN LA
AND SERN AR INTO NWRN OH.  AMS SE AND E OF THIS FNTL BNDRY IS MOIST
AND MDTLY UNSTBL AS SFC DWPNTS ARE BTWN 65 AND 70 DEG F FM S CNTRL
AND SERN TX NEWD INTO MS...AND LIFTED INDICES RANGE FM -8 OVR S
CNTRL TX TO -4 INTO W CNTRL LA.

...ERN TX AND THE GLFCST STATES...

THE CYCLOGENESIS OCRG OVR S CNTRL TX IS EXPCD TO BCM A LO OVR E
CNTRL TX BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A CDFNTL BNDRY EXTDG SWD
AND A QSTNRY BNDRY REACHING NEWD INTO THE TN VLY.  LO LVL JET OF 40
KT WILL CONT TO EXTD NWD THRU SERN LA AS SRN BRANCH OF THE MID/UPR
LVL JETS EXTD ACRS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.  LO LVL FLO WILL
CONT TO DSTBLZ AMS ACRS SERN TX INTO LA THRU MRNG UNDERNEATH STG
MID/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ENHNCG UVVS AHD OF SFC LO.  

BOTH ETA AND NGM AGREE IN WEAKENING THE MID/UPR LVL SHRTWV AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STG RDGG THAT EXTDS NWD OFF ERN FL PEN TNGT.  THE SHRTWV
WILL MOV ENEWD ACRS LA AND NRN MS INCRG LO LVL CNVGNC IN VCNTY OF
QSTNRY FNTL BNDRY WHICH WILL EXTD NEWD THRU SERN VA BY TNGT.  LO
LVL FLO IS EXPCD TO WEAKEN A BIT AS WELL EXTDG FM THE CNTRL GLFCST
INTO NWRN GA WITH UPR DIVERGENCE EXTDG FM SERN MS OVR NRN AL THRU
TNGT.

SVR TSTMS ARE EXPCD TO BE OCRG OVR ERN TX BY THE BGNG OF THE PD
EXTDG NEWD INTO NRN LA.  STG SPD SHEAR IS EXPCD TO CONT AS MDL SNDG
DATA INDCS STRAIGHT LINE TYPE HODOGRAPHS AHD OF THE UPR SYS.  MAIN
THREAT IS EXPCD TO BE LRG HAIL AND STG WNDS WITH THE ACTVTY...BUT
AS SRN BRANCH OF THE MID LVL SHIFTS EWD/SEWD OVR THE GLFCST...RIGHT
DEVIANT MOTION WILL BE PSBL SUPPORTING SUPERCELL DVLPMT IN/NR THE
MDT RICK AREA.

...GA AND THE CAROLINAS...

MID LVL SHRTWV CONTS TO WEAKEN RPDLY TNGT AS IT MOVS NEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS.  QSTNRY BNDRY WILL BE XTNDG EWD ACRS NRN NC BY LTR TNGT.

AMS FM GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL CONT TO BE MOIST AND UNSTBL
WITH SFC DWPNTS IN THE MID 60S AND LIFTED INDICES TO -4.  STG SWLY
WNDS AT MID/UPR LVLS WITH WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDCS THAT MAIN
THREAT ACRS THESE AREAS TNGT WILL BE WITH BOW ECHOES/DMGG WNDS. 
 
..MCCARTHY.. 03/02/97