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000 
ACUS1 KMKC 171504
MKC AC 171500

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 171500 - 181200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 40 ENE TOL
FDY 50 SSE IND SLO BLV UIN MLI LSE EAU IWD.

THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDES MOST OF ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN...MICHIGAN...MUCH OF INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM ERI PKB
FTK PAH FSM END CNU CID ALO FRM RWF AXN 90 NE HIB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 20 NE ROC IPT 30 E SBY
...CONT...40 SSW LFT HEZ GLH PBF ADM CSM ICT MKC OTM OTG PIR RAP
4DG LAR MTJ ELY NFL SFO ...CONT...ACV LWS 50 NW FCA.

STG MID LVL WIND MAX...70 KT AT 500 MB...IS ROTATING NEWD INTO OHIO
VLY AND SRN GRTLKS RGN. 850 MB WIND MAX OF 55 KT AT UMN AT 12Z IS
EXPCD TO DVLP NEWD INTO CNTRL IND BY 00Z TDA. STG DIFFLUENCE IS
INDICATED OVR HIGH RISK RGN AS UPR TROF MOVS NEWD. ALTHO WINDS ARE
RATHER PARALLEL IN THE VERTICAL...THE SPEED SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO..EXTREMELY UNSTBL AMS IS IN
PLACE OVR SRN GREAT LAKES RGN AND PTNS MID MS/OH VLYS...WITH
POTENTIAL LI VALUES OF MINUS 10 TO MINUS 12 AT PIA. PROGS INDICATE
STG 700 MB COOLING FM W AND SIG UVV ALG CDFNT. THIS COMBINATION OF
VRY STG WIND FIELDS...EXTREMELY UNSTBL AIR...AND THE LKLYHOOD OF
STG TSTM DVLPMT SUG THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIG OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DO
DEVELOP..HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK AND/OR STG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES. NWS STATIONS IN THE HIGH RISK AREA SHUD KEEP VERY ALERT
FOR SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT COULD LEAD TO TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

WE EXPECT EXPLOSIVE TSTM DVLPMT ALG CDFNT BY ERY AFTN WITH ACTVTY
RAPIDLY BCMG SVR. ACTVTY LKLY TO DVLP FM WI SSWWD INTO WRN IL AND
THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD INTO MI AND IN..REACHING NWRN OH DURG THE
LATE AFTN OR EVE.

OTHER ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAY OCCUR NEAR UPR LO IN UPR MS VLY AND ALG
TRAILING CDFNT AS FAR SW AS OK.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...MKCPWOMKC...WILL BE ISSUED ABT
16Z.

..JOHNS.. 06/17/92