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617 FXUS63 KPAH 050705 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 205 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern arrives later today/tonight and continues through Saturday. Additional rain chances may linger through Monday before dry conditions arrive for a few days next week. - An isolated strong to severe storm is possible through the day today. A better chance for at least some strong to severe storms exists late Friday morning through Friday afternoon. This risk may also reemerge on Saturday. - Periods of locally heavy rain are expected through Saturday. Rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches are forecast, with localized higher amounts up to 4 or 5 inches possible. A few minor flooding issues are possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A shortwave trough moving towards the area seems to be in the process of producing the maximum ascent that it will for the area. A fairly broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms, producing very efficient rainfall rates, is draped along the Mississippi River corridor then along and just north of the Ohio. Modified soundings show about 800 J/kg of MLCAPE with weak, if any low-level moisture advection. PWAT values are 1.9 to 2.0 inches. Shear fields are pretty marginal but could potentially be briefly supportive for some gusty winds across SWIN and northwest KY through 5 am or so. Flooding is the main threat with the slow moving activity. A surface front is just behind this activity. The general trend is for this leading wave of activity to start to taper off and then new showers/storms will reform in the late morning and afternoon both along the front and in the generally modestly unstable airmass with surface dewpoints working into the low 70s. A touch of increased jet level ascent is possible this afternoon and evening that may work to focus/increase coverage in the activity after 3-4 pm, but mostly we should be looking at standard pop-up showers and storms. The severe potential seems pretty limited with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, somewhat limited DCAPE and fairly weak ambient shear. A step down in activity looks likely tonight before another more robust shortwave moves in Friday morning. This shortwave helps steepen height/wind fields through the column giving us decent low and deep layer shear. Peak ascent though will probably be 15-18z locally so we will have a somewhat limited timeline to destablize from insolation. Nevertheless we show about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderate westerly deep and low shear and a small focused shortwave that seems to be singing the song of MCS potential along the mostly west to east draped frontal boundary. The highest potential mostly looks to be outside of our area but we will need to be on guard for damaging wind potential and and isolated tornado or two if everything comes together. If this wave slows down and gives us more time for destablization then we may have more of a threat emerge. A second wave moving through on Saturday is clearly trending further north in the model guidance suite from 24 hours ago giving us a much better chance for thunderstorms and what would appear to be at least some severe potential in the form of another MCS or scattered afternoon storm cells. The current timing and placement of this setup may work out where we get more sun before thunder rolls in on Saturday but the entire pattern is very fickle and diffuse so its obviously pretty hard to get a clean read on it as we move away from the strong, trackable trough/ridge/jet maxima of the cold/spring season and into the lumbering mess that is summer. In the extended for now shortwaves move in from the northwest and kind of keep the thickest humidity and rain chances to our south, but its close enough to be skeptical for now. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Convection, low ceilings and intermittent reduction in visibility will be the main concerns through this TAF issuance. Intermittent showers and storms are anticipated at each of the TAF sites through the day Thursday. Gusty erratic winds are possible with any of the storms along with brief reductions in visibility to IFR or possibly lower. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...KC