National Weather Service Raw Text Product

375 
FXUS64 KMEG 021927
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
227 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-Severe weather and very heavy rainfall are expected this afternoon 
through Saturday.
 
-A High Risk of severe weather today, an Enhanced Risk is in 
 effect Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

-A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today, Friday 
and Saturday with a High Risk on Thursday.

-Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range 
along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk.
Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A volatile day ahead across the Midsouth as we anticipate a 
significant severe weather outbreak tonight as we begin a several 
day stretch of active weather. A High (level 5/5) risk is in 
effect for much of the region through tonight!

An upper trough, currently situated over the Rockies, will continue 
to inch eastward throughout the end of the week. To its leeward 
side, a broad belt of 100+ knot upper level flow will continue to 
overspread the central CONUS, maintaining a strong surface mass 
response extending up from the Gulf through the entire MS River 
Valley. This regime has been in place for well over a day and has 
allowed for significant moisture return to take place with mid 60s 
and low 70s dewpoints across the region. Insolation, gradual height 
falls, and 700 mb cooling will initiate storms later this afternoon 
that will last through the night.

Taking a deeper dive into the convective setup today, a truly 
volatile environment presents itself. Aforementioned surface heating 
and moisture transport has brought very high theta e into the 
region. Current HRRR/WOFS/HREF progs display SBCAPE/MLCAPE reaching 
above 3500 J/kg later this afternoon with a meager 0/-50 J/kg. 
Therefore, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along both a 
convectively enhanced cold front to the west and with any stronger 
areas of surface convergence across AR/MS/TN/MO. As storms fire, 
bulk 0-6km shear from the west will increase, supporting the 
development of supercells. ESRH will also begin to rise into the 
evening. The same model suite shows values of up to, and possibly 
above, 400 m2/s2 across the majority of the region by 00z. The 
combination of all of these ingredients will culminate in an STP 
greater than 5 for several hours that will be supportive of strong 
tornadoes alongside large hail and damaging winds. 

Another note about the severe threat will be the bi-modality of the 
hazards. CAM guidance has been keen building a large complex of 
supercells, potentially embedded in a line, to our west that 
propagates east through tonight. Ahead of this line, CAMs/WOFS 
have started to highlight the potential for discrete/clustered 
supercells. Therefore, threats will likely be stratified between 
the two modes with the most significant tornado threat 
accompanying any supercells that can develop ahead of the main 
line.

Alongside severe weather, strong gradient winds and boundary layer 
mixing have brought advisory criteria gusts throughout the region. 
As such, a wind advisory is in effect through 11 pm tonight across 
the entire region. Some blowing dust has been observed across NE AR 
and has been added to the forecast to compensate.

The cold front that is associated with tonight's weather will 
eventually stall out over the TN/MS border by tomorrow. The slow 
eastward progression of the large-scale upper trough will allow for 
the next several days to continue providing severe chances with the 
surface stationary boundary as a focus for convection. Tomorrow's 
risk has been upgraded to an Enhanced (level 3/5) for tornadoes, 
wind, and hail with another Enhanced (level 3/5) on both Friday
and Saturday as the upper system and surface cold front make 
their final pass through the region. 

With convection focused along a front for several days, dangerous
flooding will also be a concern. PWATs are expected to be above 
the 95th percentile for several days as we remain gridlocked into 
a tropical airmass. Continued surface convergence and isentropic 
ascent will squeeze much of this moisture out across the region 
through Saturday before the upper system can exit the region. The 
current forecast calls for a swath of 10+ inches of rain on a line
from Cross County AR through Henry County TN with gradually 
tapering amounts to the north and south down to 6 inches in N MS. 
Locally higher amounts are possible, especially with any training 
thunderstorms. This is not a normal and will be a dangerous, 
generational flooding event!

Weather will finally calm down into Sunday and Monday as the upper 
system exits the CONUS. Surface high pressure and northerlies will 
bring drier, cooler air into the Midsouth as a result. This 
northwest flow regime will last through the end of the forecast 
period. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Gusty south winds will prevail this afternoon with gusts of 30-40 
kts and mainly VFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will push 
into the area later this afternoon and evening impacting JBR, MKL 
and MEM mainly between 02/23z and 03/06z. TUP should remain south of 
the widespread thunderstorm activity through the TAF period with 
only scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in that area 
tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 
  036-048-049-058.

     Blowing Dust Warning until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ028- 
  036.

MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ113-115.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008- 
010>014-020.

     Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for 
     MSZ006-009-015>017-021>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022- 
048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB 
AVIATION...SWC