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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDPPG Product Timestamp: 2020-02-20 23:56 UTC
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690 FXZS60 NSTU 202356 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI 156 PM HST Thu Feb 20 2020 .Discussion... Current satellite images show that the center of newly-formed Tropical Cyclone Vicky is just south of Tutuila, and is moving generally southeastward away from the islands. Surface pressures over the islands are, and weather will gradually improve overnight, but areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring the potential for locally strong and gusty winds. A brief break in the recent extreme weather is expected to be short- lived as another tropical low has formed within the active monsoon trough over the region, and is currently centered near 12S 177W, or about 450 miles west-northwest of Tutuila. Latest model guidance, (which has not performed exceptionally well with the details of the recent weather) indicates that this low could pass dangerously close to the islands as it strengthens late Friday into Saturday, potentially bringing another round of high wind, flooding rain and high surf. Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting is an ongoing area of research, and forecasting the future intensity of incipient tropical cyclones is a low confidence endeavor. Therefore details on the specifics of the potential impacts are difficult to accurately pinpoint, but residents and visitors should anticipate another round of locally damaging winds and torrential rain with this system. This low is expected to depart the area by Saturday night, leaving the islands in a convergent northerly flow that will likely persist into the middle of next week. While this appears to keep the threat of heavy showers and thundershowers over the area, winds will be much lighter, mainly in the 10 to 20 mph range. && .Marine... Gale force winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Vicky are gradually diminishing, and seas are responding by gradually diminishing, as supported by data from the Aunuu buoy. As the cyclone moves away from the area tonight, winds and seas may diminish somewhat, but this is expected to be short-lived as yet another tropical low is expected to cross the region - potentially as early as Friday night/Saturday. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected with this system as well. After this low moves away, a wet northerly flow is expected to prevail, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, but winds and seas should generally trend down. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning Flash Flood Watch High Wind Warning High Surf Advisory && $$ Birchard/HFO
157 FXZS60 NSTU 202357 CCA AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected National Weather Service Pago Pago AS Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI 156 PM HST Thu Feb 20 2020 .Discussion... Current satellite images show that the center of newly-formed Tropical Cyclone Vicky is just south of Tutuila, and is moving generally southeastward away from the islands. Surface pressures over the islands are rising, and weather will gradually improve overnight, but areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring the potential for locally strong and gusty winds. A brief break in the recent extreme weather is expected to be short- lived as another tropical low has formed within the active monsoon trough over the region, and is currently centered near 12S 177W, or about 450 miles west-northwest of Tutuila. Latest model guidance, (which has not performed exceptionally well with the details of the recent weather) indicates that this low could pass dangerously close to the islands as it strengthens late Friday into Saturday, potentially bringing another round of high wind, flooding rain and high surf. Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting is an ongoing area of research, and forecasting the future intensity of incipient tropical cyclones is a low confidence endeavor. Therefore details on the specifics of the potential impacts are difficult to accurately pinpoint, but residents and visitors should anticipate another round of locally damaging winds and torrential rain with this system. This low is expected to depart the area by Saturday night, leaving the islands in a convergent northerly flow that will likely persist into the middle of next week. While this appears to keep the threat of heavy showers and thundershowers over the area, winds will be much lighter, mainly in the 10 to 20 mph range. && .Marine... Gale force winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Vicky are gradually diminishing, and seas are responding by gradually diminishing, as supported by data from the Aunuu buoy. As the cyclone moves away from the area tonight, winds and seas may diminish somewhat, but this is expected to be short-lived as yet another tropical low is expected to cross the region - potentially as early as Friday night/Saturday. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected with this system as well. After this low moves away, a wet northerly flow is expected to prevail, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, but winds and seas should generally trend down. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning Flash Flood Watch High Wind Warning High Surf Advisory && $$ Birchard/HFO
056 FXZS60 NSTU 210125 CCB AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected National Weather Service Pago Pago AS Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI 156 PM HST Thu Feb 20 2020 .Discussion... Current satellite images show that the center of newly-formed Tropical Cyclone Vicky is just south of Tutuila, and is moving generally southeastward away from the islands. Surface pressures over the islands are rising, and weather will gradually improve overnight, but areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring the potential for locally strong and gusty winds. A brief break in the recent extreme weather is expected to be short- lived as another tropical low has formed within the active monsoon trough over the region, and is currently centered near 12S 177W, or about 450 miles west-northwest of Tutuila. Latest model guidance, (which has not performed exceptionally well with the details of the recent weather) indicates that this low could pass dangerously close to the islands as it strengthens late Friday into Saturday, potentially bringing another round of high wind, flooding rain and high surf. Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting is an ongoing area of research, and forecasting the future intensity of incipient tropical cyclones is a low confidence endeavor. Therefore details on the specifics of the potential impacts are difficult to accurately pinpoint, but residents and visitors should anticipate another round of locally damaging winds and torrential rain with this system. This low is expected to depart the area by Saturday night, leaving the islands in a convergent northerly flow that will likely persist into the middle of next week. While this appears to keep the threat of heavy showers and thundershowers over the area, winds will be much lighter, mainly in the 10 to 20 mph range. && .Marine... Gale force winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Vicky are gradually diminishing, and seas are responding by gradually diminishing, as supported by data from the Aunuu buoy. As the cyclone moves away from the area tonight, winds and seas may diminish somewhat, but this is expected to be short-lived as yet another tropical low is expected to cross the region - potentially as early as Friday night/Saturday. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected with this system as well. After this low moves away, a wet northerly flow is expected to prevail, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, but winds and seas should generally trend down. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning Flash Flood Watch High Wind Warning High Surf Warning && $$ Birchard/HFO