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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-10 15:12 UTC
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904 ACUS11 KWNS 101512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101512 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...NRN KY AND WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101512Z - 101715Z INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/VORTICITY MAX OVER IL/IND SHOULD AID IN INTENSIFICATION OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER FAR NRN KY/SWRN OH. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AS SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN OH...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION APPEARS NECESSARY FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IF THE CONVECTION CAN BECOME ROOTED....MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 39308499 39898463 39188096 38348108 38408448