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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-10 08:33 UTC
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864 ACUS11 KWNS 100833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100833 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL IND EWD INTO ERN PA/WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100833Z - 101000Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL IND/NRN KY EWD INTO ERN PA AND WV. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SWLY 40-50KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW OVER SRN MI SEWD ACROSS NRN OH/SWRN PA AND INTO NRN PA. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM SRN IND/NRN KY EWD INTO OH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO STRONGLY FORCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TSTMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH MIGHT ENHANCE ONGOING TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW ONCE THREAT AREA CAN BE BETTER DEFINED. ..MEAD.. 05/10/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 40158669 41158094 41257944 41107819 39687753 38417869 37568035 37658429 37908749