National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
108 
ACUS11 KWNS 081923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081922 
KSZ000-082045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081922Z - 082045Z

...TORNADO WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED BY 300-400 PM... 


DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDS FROM SW OF LTS SWWD ALONG A LINE TO NEAR  ABI
AND SJT. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL KS...DRYLINE WILL
MOVE EWD AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT 50 E OF SPS TO NEAR
JCT BY 22Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING
SHOWED THE CAP WOULD BE BROKEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S....BUT MORE HEATING IS REQUIRED ACROSS NRN TX WHERE THE UPPER
FORCING IS WEAKER AND THE CAP IS STRONGER. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR ABI AND SPS AND EXPECT THESE  INCREASE AS
THE DRYLINE MOVES EWD INTO DEEPER BOUNDARY MOISTURE. WITH A LITTLE
MORE HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...THOUGH THEY MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED THAN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ONCE IT BECOMES
APPEARS THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN...A WW WOULD BE ISSUED	 

..IMY.. 05/08/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38309928 38050060 38230137 38800134 39230002 39919888
39849825 39729785 38989797 
000 
ACUS11 KWNS 081923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081922 
KSZ000-082045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081922Z - 082045Z

...TORNADO WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED BY 300-400 PM... 


DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDS FROM SW OF LTS SWWD ALONG A LINE TO NEAR  ABI
AND SJT. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL KS...DRYLINE WILL
MOVE EWD AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT 50 E OF SPS TO NEAR
JCT BY 22Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING
SHOWED THE CAP WOULD BE BROKEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S....BUT MORE HEATING IS REQUIRED ACROSS NRN TX WHERE THE UPPER
FORCING IS WEAKER AND THE CAP IS STRONGER. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR ABI AND SPS AND EXPECT THESE  INCREASE AS
THE DRYLINE MOVES EWD INTO DEEPER BOUNDARY MOISTURE. WITH A LITTLE
MORE HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...THOUGH THEY MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED THAN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ONCE IT BECOMES
APPEARS THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN...A WW WOULD BE ISSUED	 

..IMY.. 05/08/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38309928 38050060 38230137 38800134 39230002 39919888
39849825 39729785 38989797