National Weather Service Raw Text Product

546 
ACUS11 KWNS 071649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071649 
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-071845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA/NRN VA/NERN WV/WRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071649Z - 071845Z

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN PA/NRN WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS SRN PA/NRN VA. NEW CELLS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. CONVECTION WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

ANALYSIS SHOWED A NARROW AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
EXISTING ACROSS VA/WRN MD/SW PA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F. A
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WITH A VORTICITY MAX OVER LAKE ERIE ON WV IMAGERY. SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF THE LINE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THE LINE IN AREAS
FURTHER E. ALSO...NEW CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE
ALONG AND E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL WHICH
WILL PROMOTE LINEAR MULTICELLS/AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WW MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THIS AREA.

..BROYLES.. 05/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

40167994 40507998 41167982 41447830 41567693 41507622
40847597 40377589 39557582 39027694 38827854 38837976