National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
798 
ACUS11 KWNS 070927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070926 
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-071130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...SWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...

VALID 070926Z - 071130Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD 35-40 KT ACROSS
ERN TN WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE THERE IS LESS VERTICAL DISTANCE OF RELATIVELY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THROUGH WHICH DOWNDRAFT MUST PENETRATE TO
REACH GROUND.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR PARCEL LIFTED FROM
APPROXIMATELY 4 KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL...AND SR INFLOW 15-20 KT. 
MUCAPE DECREASES NWD INTO KY UNTIL VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE
ATTAINED INVOF KY/WV BORDER.  PROMINENT WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED ON
REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS FOR NRN PORTION OF MCS ACROSS THAT
REGION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CELLS.  ACCORDINGLY...KY PORTION WW MAY BE
DROPPED BEFORE SCHEDULED 13Z EXPIRATION.  OVERALL...EXPECT ACTIVITY
ACROSS ENTIRE WW AREA TO POSE PROGRESSIVELY LESS SEVERE THREAT WITH
EWD EXTENT...WHERE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING. 
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED FARTHER E ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

34978610 38148417 38118198 34978398 
000 
ACUS11 KWNS 070927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070926 
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-071130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...SWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...

VALID 070926Z - 071130Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD 35-40 KT ACROSS
ERN TN WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE THERE IS LESS VERTICAL DISTANCE OF RELATIVELY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THROUGH WHICH DOWNDRAFT MUST PENETRATE TO
REACH GROUND.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR PARCEL LIFTED FROM
APPROXIMATELY 4 KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL...AND SR INFLOW 15-20 KT. 
MUCAPE DECREASES NWD INTO KY UNTIL VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE
ATTAINED INVOF KY/WV BORDER.  PROMINENT WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED ON
REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS FOR NRN PORTION OF MCS ACROSS THAT
REGION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CELLS.  ACCORDINGLY...KY PORTION WW MAY BE
DROPPED BEFORE SCHEDULED 13Z EXPIRATION.  OVERALL...EXPECT ACTIVITY
ACROSS ENTIRE WW AREA TO POSE PROGRESSIVELY LESS SEVERE THREAT WITH
EWD EXTENT...WHERE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING. 
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED FARTHER E ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

34978610 38148417 38118198 34978398