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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-06 03:58 UTC
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868 ACUS11 KWNS 060358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060358 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...SRN IL...SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060358Z - 060600Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ONGOING STORMS. WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECAME REFOCUSED EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE CINCINNATI OH/EVANSVILLE IND/CARBONDALE IL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF HARRISON AR. 00Z ETA RUN SUGGESTED INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 00-03Z...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING...WHICH THE ETA MODEL SUGGESTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...WEAKENING BY AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER UNTIL THEN...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES NEAR MID/UPPER JET AXIS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. ..KERR.. 05/06/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36709441 37009306 37279189 37978975 38418815 38688694 39348568 39388489 38418555 37738768 37118934 36419147 36169334 36319447