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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-03 18:42 UTC
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687 ACUS11 KWNS 031843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031842 TXZ000-OKZ000-032115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX...AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031842Z - 032115Z THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION SEWD INTO NWRN TX IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE 03/20-04/00Z PERIOD. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH IF STORMS CAN IN FACT FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD ACROSS NWRN TX...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND SWRN OK IS RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AT 18Z.SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND AMPLE INSOLATION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN TX BASED ON 18Z ANALYSES. A SIGNIFICANT CAP /CIN -100 TO -150 J/KG/ REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK WHERE CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CIN HAS LESSENED TO -25 TO -50 J/KG IN THE REGION BOUNDED BY SPS-CDS-ABI. ALOFT...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON WV IMAGERY IS A CONCERN FOR INITIATION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER /21-00Z/ IN RESPONSE TO A 80-90KT 500MB JET MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. DEEP-LAYER /0-6KM/ SHEAR OF 50-55KT IS PRESENT ON PROFILER DATA AT TCU AND WSM WHICH SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AN ANTICIPATED SHARPENING OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT SUGGEST POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STORMS CONTINUING EWD INTO SWRN OK DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/03/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34539875 34979911 36820035 36930103 36930192 36090191 35200169 34590150 33960120 33150094 32580039 32349898 32739829 32999786 33399780 33869812