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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY3 Product Timestamp: 2002-11-08 09:38 UTC
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000 ACUS03 KWNS 080938 SWODY3 SPC AC 080907 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 101200-111200 LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY CENTERS AROUND THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE ETA IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND SUGGESTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE SLOWER GFS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH/MID MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS. UKMET ALSO SUPPORTS THE SLOWER GFS. REGARDLESS...APPEARS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT GIVEN TWO DAYS OF STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WARRANTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED ...ALONG WITH SEVERAL SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES. UNCERTAINTIES WITHIN SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTED ATTM...THOUGH SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..EVANS.. 11/08/02 NNNN
562 ACUS03 KWNS 080938 SWODY3 SPC AC 080907 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 101200-111200 LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY CENTERS AROUND THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE ETA IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND SUGGESTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE SLOWER GFS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH/MID MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS. UKMET ALSO SUPPORTS THE SLOWER GFS. REGARDLESS...APPEARS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT GIVEN TWO DAYS OF STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WARRANTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED ...ALONG WITH SEVERAL SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES. UNCERTAINTIES WITHIN SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARRANTED ATTM...THOUGH SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..EVANS.. 11/08/02 NNNN