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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-28 20:11 UTC
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000 ACUS01 KWNS 282011 SWODY1 SPC AC 282001 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL PA... MD...DC...VA...WRN NC...MID/ERN TN...WV AND EXTREME ERN KY...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW CKV BNA LOZ 35 E PKB BFD 30 ESE BFD BWI RIC 25 S GSO 20 SW AVL 35 SE MKL 55 SSW CKV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART ALB 15 SSE ISP ...CONT... 40 N HSE FAY AND GAD GWO GLH 40 WSW MEM MKL 10 NNE BNA 25 NW JKL 25 ENE PKB 20 ENE FKL 15 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CHS 55 N HOU 40 NE CLL 40 WSW TYR 35 E PRX DYR BWG UNI ERI ...CONT... 55 N BML 10 SSE BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OTH BNO MQM WEY SHR 40 SE FSD 60 NE OMA FNB HLC DEN 60 ENE ELY ELY 45 N TPH NFL 25 SE RNO TVL SAC UKI 60 NW UKI. --- SYNOPSIS --- PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERWAY ACROSS CONUS...WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM WRN CANADA ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AND ACCELERATE EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE -- ANALYZED INVOF EXTREME WRN NY...IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE FURTHER AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY APPROXIMATELY 29/06Z. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT OVER OH AND WRN KY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF FRONT -- ESPECIALLY INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW ANALYZED FROM WRN PA SSWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN TN. --- MID ATLANTIC TO TN VALLEY --- SEVERE LOCAL STORMS OUTBREAK UNDERWAY. REF SPC WWS 167 THROUGH 173 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 549 ONWARD FOR NOWCAST THREAT FROM WRN NY SWWD INTO PORTIONS ERN/NRN TN. PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH EWD ACROSS ERN NY/ERN PA/NRN NJ DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AS CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES INTO RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER THAN MOTION OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE -- DAMAGING HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES -- FROM BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS -- SWWD AS FAR AS PORTIONS WRN/MID TN AND INTO PIEDMONT REGION NC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE E OF APPALACHIANS IN ADDITION TO ANY CONVECTION SURVIVING PASSAGE ACROSS NARROW PLUMES OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN 50S F...FROM BLUE RIDGE 70- 120 NM WWD OVER NC...WRN VA AND WV. AIR MASS THERMODYNAMICS E OF BLUE RIDGE ARE AT LEAST AS FAVORABLE AS WEST...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR ALREADY SUBSTANTIAL PER REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS AND MODIFIED RUC2/ETA SOUNDINGS. SERIES OF SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE MID/ERN TN BEFORE FROPA...WITH MLCAPE TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SRH AOA 250 J/KG. OVERALL THREAT MAY DIMINISH CLOSE TO COAST -- IN TIDEWATER REGION CAROLINAS/DELMARVA -- WITH DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING IN SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER SWLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CLOSE TO ATLANTIC COAST. ..EDWARDS.. 04/28/02
001 ACUS01 KWNS 282011 SWODY1 SPC AC 282001 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL PA... MD...DC...VA...WRN NC...MID/ERN TN...WV AND EXTREME ERN KY...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW CKV BNA LOZ 35 E PKB BFD 30 ESE BFD BWI RIC 25 S GSO 20 SW AVL 35 SE MKL 55 SSW CKV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART ALB 15 SSE ISP ...CONT... 40 N HSE FAY AND GAD GWO GLH 40 WSW MEM MKL 10 NNE BNA 25 NW JKL 25 ENE PKB 20 ENE FKL 15 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CHS 55 N HOU 40 NE CLL 40 WSW TYR 35 E PRX DYR BWG UNI ERI ...CONT... 55 N BML 10 SSE BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OTH BNO MQM WEY SHR 40 SE FSD 60 NE OMA FNB HLC DEN 60 ENE ELY ELY 45 N TPH NFL 25 SE RNO TVL SAC UKI 60 NW UKI. --- SYNOPSIS --- PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERWAY ACROSS CONUS...WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM WRN CANADA ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AND ACCELERATE EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE -- ANALYZED INVOF EXTREME WRN NY...IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE FURTHER AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY APPROXIMATELY 29/06Z. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT OVER OH AND WRN KY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF FRONT -- ESPECIALLY INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW ANALYZED FROM WRN PA SSWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN TN. --- MID ATLANTIC TO TN VALLEY --- SEVERE LOCAL STORMS OUTBREAK UNDERWAY. REF SPC WWS 167 THROUGH 173 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 549 ONWARD FOR NOWCAST THREAT FROM WRN NY SWWD INTO PORTIONS ERN/NRN TN. PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH EWD ACROSS ERN NY/ERN PA/NRN NJ DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AS CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES INTO RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER THAN MOTION OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE -- DAMAGING HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES -- FROM BOTH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS -- SWWD AS FAR AS PORTIONS WRN/MID TN AND INTO PIEDMONT REGION NC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE E OF APPALACHIANS IN ADDITION TO ANY CONVECTION SURVIVING PASSAGE ACROSS NARROW PLUMES OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN 50S F...FROM BLUE RIDGE 70- 120 NM WWD OVER NC...WRN VA AND WV. AIR MASS THERMODYNAMICS E OF BLUE RIDGE ARE AT LEAST AS FAVORABLE AS WEST...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR ALREADY SUBSTANTIAL PER REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS AND MODIFIED RUC2/ETA SOUNDINGS. SERIES OF SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE MID/ERN TN BEFORE FROPA...WITH MLCAPE TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SRH AOA 250 J/KG. OVERALL THREAT MAY DIMINISH CLOSE TO COAST -- IN TIDEWATER REGION CAROLINAS/DELMARVA -- WITH DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING IN SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER SWLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CLOSE TO ATLANTIC COAST. ..EDWARDS.. 04/28/02