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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-28 12:28 UTC
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279 ACUS01 KWNS 281228 SWODY1 SPC AC 281217 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH...NRN KY...WV...PA...EXTREME SWRN NY...SRN NJ...DE...MD...WASHINGTON D.C...AND NRN VA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE WAL 45 NNE SHD 30 ENE 5I3 45 S LEX 35 NNW LEX 25 N LUK 30 W MFD 35 WSW ERI 15 N JHW 40 NE BFD 15 ENE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR ISP ...CONT... 25 NE ECG 55 NNW RWI 30 SSW HKY 40 NW AHN 40 NNW BHM 25 SSW MEM 35 SSW JBR 35 SE POF 10 WSW EVV 30 ENE IND 25 ENE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SUX 15 SSW FOD 25 SW LWD 10 WNW TOP 15 S EAR 35 SSE IML 10 WSW AKO 40 SSW 4FC 55 NW GJT 40 E SLC 45 ESE EKO 20 SSW TWF 40 NW JAC 55 S GCC 35 SSE RAP 35 N BUB 35 NE SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OTH 55 NNW LMT 30 NNW RNO 35 E SCK 45 S UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW CRE 15 NE CSG 20 NW LUL 45 E LFK 10 W AUS 40 SSW BWD 25 SW FTW 40 SE FSM 35 E UNO 20 SSW MTO 25 WSW AZO 35 E PLN ...CONT... 15 SSW ART 10 SSE PSM. ...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...AND HAIL ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORM SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO PA/NY/NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION WILL RACE EWD ACROSS NY/PA/NJ TODAY AND THEN OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NEW YORK LATE TODAY...AND THEN REDEVELOPS ALONG WARM FRONT FROM NYC NEWD TO CAPE COD. VERY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...FROM WRN OH LATER THIS MORNING...INTO PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST/MID ATLANTIC AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT EDT. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO TX. ...UPPER OH VALLEY TO PA/NY/NJ... BAND OF VIGOROUS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND TRAILS SWWD ACROSS KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN STRONGLY CONFLUENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF DEEP CYCLONE NOW MOVING ACROSS LM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE PREFRONTAL STORMS...AND AHEAD OF SHARP COLD FRONT...HAS RESULTED IN NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM AR INTO WRN OH. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WAS ALREADY CLEARING THE REGION ACROSS IND/OH THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW INCREASING INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM OH VALLEY NEWD INTO WRN PA. ENSEMBLE OF OPERATIONAL ETA/ETAKF/RUC AND AVN INSTABILITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 90-120 METER 12-H 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND 50-60 KT FLOW IN THE MID/LOWER TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD PROMOTE AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD FROM OH/WV INTO EXTREME SWRN NY...MUCH OF PA...AND NRN MD FROM ABOUT 16Z THROUGH 23Z. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. ...DELMARVA REGION... CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MAY ACT TO LIMIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING WITHIN LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS NRN/ERN VA AND MD ERN SHORE PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING. WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY EXIST TO THE NORTH OF VA...ISOLD TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS... CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM D.C. AREA ACROSS VA DURING THE EVENING. THE THREAT OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ...TN VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY... INCREASINGLY SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE WILL SAG INTO THIS REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME ALIGNED BENEATH MEAN WLY FLOW. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME IN THE WAKE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH. WITH OVERALL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WEAKENING WITH TIME...ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLD IN NATURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS AIDING SHEAR PROFILES...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND IF STORMS DO DEVELOP. ..CARBIN.. 04/28/02
000 ACUS01 KWNS 281228 SWODY1 SPC AC 281217 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH...NRN KY...WV...PA...EXTREME SWRN NY...SRN NJ...DE...MD...WASHINGTON D.C...AND NRN VA...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE WAL 45 NNE SHD 30 ENE 5I3 45 S LEX 35 NNW LEX 25 N LUK 30 W MFD 35 WSW ERI 15 N JHW 40 NE BFD 15 ENE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR ISP ...CONT... 25 NE ECG 55 NNW RWI 30 SSW HKY 40 NW AHN 40 NNW BHM 25 SSW MEM 35 SSW JBR 35 SE POF 10 WSW EVV 30 ENE IND 25 ENE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SUX 15 SSW FOD 25 SW LWD 10 WNW TOP 15 S EAR 35 SSE IML 10 WSW AKO 40 SSW 4FC 55 NW GJT 40 E SLC 45 ESE EKO 20 SSW TWF 40 NW JAC 55 S GCC 35 SSE RAP 35 N BUB 35 NE SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OTH 55 NNW LMT 30 NNW RNO 35 E SCK 45 S UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW CRE 15 NE CSG 20 NW LUL 45 E LFK 10 W AUS 40 SSW BWD 25 SW FTW 40 SE FSM 35 E UNO 20 SSW MTO 25 WSW AZO 35 E PLN ...CONT... 15 SSW ART 10 SSE PSM. ...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...AND HAIL ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORM SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO PA/NY/NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION WILL RACE EWD ACROSS NY/PA/NJ TODAY AND THEN OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NEW YORK LATE TODAY...AND THEN REDEVELOPS ALONG WARM FRONT FROM NYC NEWD TO CAPE COD. VERY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...FROM WRN OH LATER THIS MORNING...INTO PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST/MID ATLANTIC AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT EDT. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO TX. ...UPPER OH VALLEY TO PA/NY/NJ... BAND OF VIGOROUS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND TRAILS SWWD ACROSS KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN STRONGLY CONFLUENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF DEEP CYCLONE NOW MOVING ACROSS LM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE PREFRONTAL STORMS...AND AHEAD OF SHARP COLD FRONT...HAS RESULTED IN NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM AR INTO WRN OH. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WAS ALREADY CLEARING THE REGION ACROSS IND/OH THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW INCREASING INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM OH VALLEY NEWD INTO WRN PA. ENSEMBLE OF OPERATIONAL ETA/ETAKF/RUC AND AVN INSTABILITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 90-120 METER 12-H 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND 50-60 KT FLOW IN THE MID/LOWER TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD PROMOTE AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD FROM OH/WV INTO EXTREME SWRN NY...MUCH OF PA...AND NRN MD FROM ABOUT 16Z THROUGH 23Z. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. ...DELMARVA REGION... CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MAY ACT TO LIMIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING WITHIN LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS NRN/ERN VA AND MD ERN SHORE PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING. WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY EXIST TO THE NORTH OF VA...ISOLD TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS... CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM D.C. AREA ACROSS VA DURING THE EVENING. THE THREAT OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ...TN VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY... INCREASINGLY SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE WILL SAG INTO THIS REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME ALIGNED BENEATH MEAN WLY FLOW. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME IN THE WAKE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH. WITH OVERALL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WEAKENING WITH TIME...ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLD IN NATURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS AIDING SHEAR PROFILES...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND IF STORMS DO DEVELOP. ..CARBIN.. 04/28/02